BigBear announced a strategic acquisition of a GenAI platform, which is growing revenue at a scorching pace.
- CEO Kevin McAleenan said, with the Ask Sage deal, BigBear is creating a secure, integrated AI platform that connects software, data, and mission services in one place.
- The deal is expected to close in either the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year.
- Despite the ongoing government shutdown, the company reaffirmed its 2025 revenue guidance.
Big Bear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) stock jumped over 12% in Monday’s extended session after the company reported a third-quarter beat and announced an M&A deal, buoying retail sentiment.
BigBear stock has been on a volatile ride this year en route to its 28% year-to-date gains.
BigBear’s Doubled Down AI Bet
The McLean, Virginia-based artificial intelligence (AI)-powered decision intelligence solutions company said it has signed an agreement to buy Ask Sage for $250 million. Ask Sage is a generative AI (GenAI) platform designed for the secure distribution of AI models and agentic AI capabilities, primarily for defense and national security agencies and other highly regulated sectors.
Big Bear noted that Sage already supports more than 100,000 users on 16,000 government teams and across hundreds of commercial companies. Ask Sage is expected to deliver annual recurring revenue (ARR) of approximately $25 million in 2025, nearly six times the amount it recorded in 2024.
CEO Kevin McAleenan said, “By integrating Ask Sage with BigBear.ai, we are creating what the market has been asking for: a secure, integrated AI platform that connects software, data, and mission services in one place.” The deal is expected to close in either the fourth quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026.
BigBear’s Q3 Earnings Snapshot
The net loss per share for the fiscal year 2025 fourth quarter narrowed to $0.03 from $0.06 a year ago, and revenue fell 20% year over year (YoY) to $33.1 million. The results, however, exceeded the Fiscal.ai-compiled consensus estimates for a loss of $0.07 and revenue of $31.82 million.
The company blamed the YoY revenue drop on lower volume in certain Army programs, and said the narrower net loss is due to non-cash changes in the fair value of the convertible 2029 notes and warrants.
Gross margin contracted 350 basis points YoY due to the absence of some high-margin programs that benefited the year-ago quarter.
BigBear ended the quarter with a backlog of $376 million.
BigBear’s Outlook
Despite the ongoing government shutdown, the company reaffirmed its 2025 revenue guidance of $125 million to $140 million, which aligns with the consensus estimate of $133.53 million.
What BigBear Retail Feels About Stock After Q3 Print
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the stock shifted to ‘bullish’ as of early Tuesday, from ‘bearish’ a day ago. The 24-hour message volume leading up to late Monday surged up by about 1,500%.
A bullish watcher said there is a good chance the stock will open above $7 on Tuesday.
Another user expressed comfort in holding the stock. “I don’t feel as bad holding this stock anymore after today’s earnings call.”
The average analysts’ price target for BigBear stock is $5.83, according to Koyfin, implying roughly 2% upside from Monday’s closing price.
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