BigBear Retail Traders Say ‘Time To Buy’ After Stock Craters Over 30% On Q2 Miss Amid Army Contract Scaleback

Quarterly revenue fell to $32.47 million from $39.78 million, missing the consensus of $40.58 million.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) shares tumbled in Monday’s extended trading after the artificial intelligence (AI)-powered decision intelligence solutions company announced an across-the-board miss for its second quarter.

On Stocktwits, BigBear stock was the top-trending ticker by late Monday. The 24-hour message volume change on the stock’s stream leading up to late Monday was 1,872%.

Retail sentiment toward the stock improved to ‘bullish’ (69/100) by late Monday from ‘neutral’ a day ago.

BBAI sentiment and message volume as of 11:10 p.m. ET, Aug. 11 | source: Stocktwits

The McLean, Virginia-based company reported a loss of $0.71 per share for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025, significantly wider than the year-ago loss of $0.06 per share. The Fiscal.ai-compiled called for a loss of $0.06 per share.

Non-cash changes in derivative liabilities ($135.8 million) related to the changes in the fair value of the convertible features of the 2029 notes and warrants, and a non-cash goodwill impairment charge ($70.6 million) primarily weighed down on the bottom-line result.

Quarterly revenue fell to $32.47 million from $39.78 million, missing the consensus of $40.58 million. The company attributed the lower revenue primarily to lower volume on certain army programs.

The gross margin also contracted to 25% from 27.8%. 

CEO Kevin McAleenan said, “Our capital raising activities this quarter coincide with the tremendous opportunities we see coming from the One Big Beautiful Bill, particularly in the Department of Homeland Security, and several of which are uniquely aligned to our core capabilities.”

BigBear guided 2025 revenue in the range of $125 million to $140 million, below the $167.74-million consensus estimate. The company withdrew its previously issued adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) guidance for the year, citing the uncertainty on certain Army programs as well as new anticipated growth investment spending in the second half of the year.

Retailer users of the Stocktwits platform weren’t ready to give up yet on the stock. “Best time to buy is now,” said a bullish watcher.

Another user expected a climb back soon after the steep drop.

In overnight trading, BigBear stock was down over 30% at $4.90. If the losses are sustained in Tuesday’s regular session, the stock is on track to experience its worst day in more than a year, according to Koyfin data.

The stock has gained approximately 60% for the year, excluding the after-hours decline. 

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