Axsome reported total net product revenue of $259.7 million, up 52% from $171.0 million a year earlier, with Auvelity accounting for a majority of it.
- Although the Street had anticipated a faster ADA ramp, Jefferies remains encouraged by robust new-to-brand prescription trends and expects scripts to inflect in the nearer term.
- Piper Sandler analyst David Amsellem said Auvelity volume metrics support “encouraging early adoption trends.”
- TD Cowen believes ADA launch concerns are overdone
Shares of Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) fell as much as 15% on Monday to a new 52-week low as investors focused on Auvelity’s launch pacing in the Alzheimer’s disease agitation (ADA) indication, despite the company’s strong third-quarter report.
Auvelity, the company’s key drug, was first approved for major depressive disorder. The company launched in the new indication in June 2026. Q3 marked the first full quarter of ADA sales.
AXSM pared some of the losses through the day and closed down 6%.
Jefferies, Piper Sandler Slash Targets
Jefferies lowered its price target on the stock to $305 from $380 while keeping a Buy rating. The firm said Auvelity’s sales in depression and Alzheimer’s agitation totaled $208 million, slightly above the $206 million consensus, they noted. Although the Street had anticipated a faster ADA ramp, Jefferies remains encouraged by robust new-to-brand prescription trends and expects scripts to inflect in the nearer term. It trimmed 2026-2027 Auvelity projections but still forecasts $4 billion to $5 billion of combined peak sales.
Piper Sandler analyst David Amsellem, meanwhile, cut his price target to $235 from $238 and maintained an Overweight rating. The firm reduced estimates for Axsome’s migraine drug Symbravo following the report but said Auvelity volume metrics support “encouraging early adoption trends.” Amsellem views the recent selloff as unjustified even with Auvelity estimates coming down.
TD Cowen Retains Price Target, Dismisses Selloff
TD Cowen analyst Joseph Thome reiterated a Buy rating and $135 price target after the company reported Q3 revenue that rose 52% year-over-year, led by $208 million of Auvelity sales. The firm believes ADA launch concerns are overdone and noted that management continues to point to an acceleration as the expanded label and sales force take full effect. Thome added that the firm sees the shares as “significantly undervalued.”
AXSM’s Q3 Results Show Broad Commercial Progress
Axsome reported total net product revenue of $259.7 million, up 52% from $171.0 million a year earlier, and above a Wall Street estimate of $249.19 million. The company’s net loss narrowed to $12.9 million, or $0.25 per share, from $47.2 million, or $0.94 per share, a year ago. Wall Street had expected a higher loss of about 0.64.
CEO Herriot Tabuteau said the company surpassed a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate and expects sustained momentum from underlying demand in major depressive disorder plus continued acceleration of new patient starts in Alzheimer’s disease agitation. Auvelity generated approximately 302,000 total prescriptions in the quarter, up 40% year-over-year, with new-to-brand prescriptions rising 44%. Growth was particularly strong among patients aged 65 and older.
How Did AXSM Retail Traders React?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around AXSM stock rose from ‘bullish’ to ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed at ‘high’ levels.
A few Stocktwits users expressed disappointment about the company not providing any guidance.
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Another user voiced optimism for the company’s pipeline and Auvelity in particular, highlighting its potential and addressable market.
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AXSM stock has dropped 26% year-to-date.
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