The seat-sharing for the forthcoming Bihar Assembly polls could be a challenge for the ruling NDA, with its key ally Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) likely to stake claim to a number of seats based on its performance in the 2020 polls.
Data show that there are at least 38 seats out of the state’s total 243 where the NDA allies could make competing claims.
Sources in the LJP(RV), led by Union food processing minister Chirag Paswan, confirmed that the party is willing to “claim seats where its candidates performed well and caused damage to Janata Dal (United) and other allies” in 2020, when the party was not part of the NDA.
In the 2020 polls, the then undivided LJP had got more votes than the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) in 32 of the 38 seats. In at least 26 of these 32 seats, the LJP had got more votes than the margin with which JD(U) had lost the seats. In five other seats, the LJP had been a runner-up. The one remaining seat – Maithani – was won by the LJP with a narrow margin of 333 votes.
Chirag’s party had also done better than other NDA allies in a few key seats.
In four of the 38 seats, the LJP got more votes than the margin with which the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), then an NDA ally, lost them. Additionally, the LJP was in second position in one of these four seats. In another seat, which was won by the Congress, the LJP was number 2 and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) was a close number three.
The LJP contested the 2020 polls on its own after leaving the NDA, citing differences with Nitish. The BJP, JD(U), VIP and HAM(S) went on to contest the elections as part of the NDA.
The BJP contested 110 of the 243 seats, winning 74 of them. The JD(U) fought in 115 seats and won 43. The VIP had contested 13 and managed to get 4. The HAM(S) won four of its seven seats.
After exiting the NDA, Chirag had targeted Nitish, with the LJP taking on the JD(U) vigorously in the 2020 polls. This was said to have been instrumental in the JD(U)’s defeat in several seats, even though the LJP itself won just one seat.
The LJP (RV) returned to the NDA fold in 2023, months ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The partnership paid off for Chirag – his party won all five Lok Sabha seats it contested and he was inducted into Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA government 3.0 as a minister.
After turning the fortunes of the LJP(RV) around, Chirag is now expected to take an aggressive stand in seat-sharing negotiations. The LJP(RV) leaders said the party will push for seats where it put up a notable performance.
“The LJP(RV) had contested independently while JD(U) and other allies were in alliance with the BJP (in 2020). They still lost those seats. If the LJP gets those seats, the NDA can comfortably defeat the Opposition,” said a key LJP (RV) leader.
The JD(U) too seems cautious about the LJP(RV)’s posturings.
“With LJP (RV) being in the NDA, seat-sharing for upcoming Assembly elections is going to be a more laborious task for the alliance this time,” a JD(U) leader said.
However, in official statements, the JD(U) seems to be denying any talk of tensions between NDA allies.
JDU spokesperson Anjum Ara said: “Every political party wants to contest on the maximum number of seats. But the NDA is determined to make Bihar a developed state under the leadership of Nitish Kumar… There will be no conflict and seat-sharing will happen with understanding between allies.”
LJP (RV) strategy
To strengthen its position during negotiations for seats, the LJP(RV) is going to hold meetings – which it is calling Sankalp Sabhas – in different parts of Bihar starting June 8.
LJP(RV) national spokesperson Dhirendra Kumar Sinha said the meetings will strengthen its bases across the state.
Asked about claims on seats where the LJP(RV) dented the JD(U) in 2020, Sinha said “winnabilty” will be taken into consideration.
“Social equations and performance in past elections will be key criteria for the decisions in seat-distribution,” Sinha said.
On May 16, at a meeting of the LJP(RV) executive committee, the party passed a resolution saying Chirag will hold “bhavishya ki jimmedari (responsibility of future)”. This might hint at potential aspirations of Chirag, but LJP (RV) leaders have so far maintained their commitment to fight under Nitish’s leadership.
On May 19, Chirag met Nitish in Patna and urged the CM to pass a proposal to confer the Bharat Ratna on LJP founder and his father Ram Vilas Paswan.
After the meeting, LJP(RV) MP Arun Bharti shared a photograph of Nitish and Chirag, captioning it “Tufanon se ladkar humne Bihar sanwara hai, abb tumhare hathon me bhavishya hamara hai (We have built Bihar by fighting the storms, now our future is in your hands)”