Chandigarh: Arvind Kejriwal’s reloaded focus on Punjab after his party’s chastening rout in the Delhi Assembly polls this year comes as no surprise.
After all, Punjab now remains the only state under the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)’s command and control – at least for the next 18-odd months.
But all its stratagems in this border state don’t seem to augur well with the ground reality. The AAP’s political stock in Punjab has arguably been on a slide. The recent unprecedented deluge in the state that tragically took 56 lives, besides swamping over 2,300 villages and damaging property and infrastructure to the tune of Rs 13,800 crore, made matters worse for the party, with it being accused of being bystanders amid the crisis. Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann remained indisposed and was admitted to a hospital in Mohali near here as the disaster escalated with each passing day. Mann’s absence rankled during Kejriwal’s visit to deluge-hit areas.
The AAP’s delinquency in the state has more to do with the overindulgence of its Delhi bosses attempting to micromanage its affairs in Punjab. The optics of Mann, who often wears a yellow turban in the style of an iconic martyr but freely bows before his Delhi masters, has only accentuated the existing rot. And Mann, over the years, has done everything to prove this Delhi-centric approach valid.
Speculations remain rife over Kejriwal’s scope to enter Parliament as a Rajya Sabha member via Punjab. The AAP’s central leadership decided to ask its sitting MP Sanjeev Arora to step down and contest the by-election from the Ludhiana West Assembly seat. This could pave the way for Kejriwal’s entry to the Upper House, although the AAP national convenor has denied its likelihood.
Many of the AAP’s Punjab MLAs and leaders are in the dock, encountering vigilance probes, while some are facing charges of crimes like rape, molestation, and corruption. The clamour against the central leadership from within the party is growing stronger and gaining momentum. AAP MLA from Sanour, Harmeet Singh Pathanmajra, who is wanted in a rape case and has been on the run since September 2, has claimed that the FIR against him was a retaliatory move for his criticism of the AAP leadership regarding flood management and squabbling within the state unit. Last week, a Punjab court sentenced AAP MLA from Khadoor Sahib, Manjinder Singh Lalpura, to four years in prison in a 12-year-old case of assault and molestation of a Dalit woman.
Besides Kejriwal, the growing influence of Manish Sisodia, who is now in charge of the party’s Punjab affairs, and Satyender Jain, who pitches in as co-in-charge, has irked the party’s leaders in the state. This remote-controlled manoeuvring by Delhi leaders has irked the Punjab unit of the AAP. Local AAP leaders claim that the state has been transformed into a rehabilitation zone for their Delhi counterparts. All this, party sources say, has taken a toll on the AAP cadre, which remains more assorted than cohesive.
Mann, meanwhile, remains unfazed amid incessant bombardment to cede ground to his Delhi bosses. The AAP’s Raghav Chadha, too, is now active in Punjab, having hibernated for several months. Punjab BJP president Sunil Jakhar calls Mann a “de facto CM” and Kejriwal a “super CM”. Jakhar told DH, “It’s demeaning that the entire governance model has been outsourced. Kejriwal, Sisodia, and his aides are running the show.”
Race to the finish
For a party besieged by the perennial problems of farmer unrest, swelling state debt, drugs, floods, and more, the AAP will have to be the pick-and-shovel contender in the 2027 Assembly elections. It’s a do-or-die situation for Kejriwal and his team. Punjab topped the country in the list of debt-to-GSDP ratio at 40.35% at the end of 2022-23, according to the latest CAG report.
A restive street awaits the AAP. It was this restive sentiment, along with the anger of the populace and a clamour for change, that brought the AAP to power in February 2022 with a resounding 92-out-of-117 score in the Assembly election. Its poll vows have seen limited fruition: For example, the Rs 1,500 monthly dole for women is still to see the light of day.
The AAP, sensing a wobbly turf ahead, is trying to push the paddle now. It’s war against drugs – an emotive, unaddressed rot in Punjab that earned it the sobriquet “Udta Punjab” – is now more than 200 days old, and is showing effect. Over 30,000 drug smugglers have been arrested, and a massive amount of high-priced heroin and opium has been recovered during this period.
Punjab has witnessed a political churn of sorts in the last few years, with almost all political parties waning both in credibility and popular support. The AAP stumbled over the debris of amplified expectations, while the SAD (Badal) is struggling to find its feet. Dissension and split within the SAD, the lack of a cohesive strategy, and an irresolute faith in the leadership of former deputy CM Sukhbir Badal have been impeding the SAD’s progression for some time now. The Congress, which used to be fairly formidable, is plagued with internal strife and one-upmanship among leaders.
The AAP is no longer a part of the I.N.D.I.A bloc. Even when it was, the AAP and the Congress did not forge an alliance for the Delhi and Punjab Assembly elections. The Punjab BJP is now out of the shadow of its former senior alliance partner, the SAD (Badal), having parted ways over the Central government’s contentious and now-repealed farm law. The BJP is toiling hard beyond its traditional vote bank in urban areas. Its outreach programmes in Punjab’s rural areas have left AAP with a sense of erosion of its “aam aadmi” vote bank.
It now remains to be seen if the SAD and the BJP once again forge an alliance. With the ruling AAP winning just three of Punjab’s 13 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections and the Congress managing seven, the AAP will now have to pull out all stops to remain electorally relevant.