Analyst Tim Farrar said SpaceX could announce an acquisition of EchoStar’s remaining business as soon as next week.
- Farrar said AST’s rival effort would require substantial telecom backing and face opposition from Viasat management.
- An Amazon takeover could end Equatys as a satellite project, according to Farrar.
- FCC approval of Amazon’s $11.5 billion Globalstar deal advances its D2D ambitions, adding competitive pressure on AST.
Amazon (AMZN) could soon acquire Viasat (VSAT), while AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has tried to assemble a rival bid, satellite consultant Tim Farrar said, outlining a potential takeover battle as Amazon and SpaceX compete for satellite dominance.
Why Viasat Could Fit Amazon’s Space Ambitions
Farrar pointed to growing expectations of an Amazon-Viasat deal in his recent note, “Prepare for the Musk vs Bezos cage fight,” following the Satellite Innovation conference in California.
“But that’s mainly a telecom industry issue, and what was animating numerous people I spoke to yesterday, is the expectation that Amazon will soon announce the acquisition of Viasat, mainly for their international spectrum holdings, but also to combine Viasat’s Ka-band GEO business with Amazon Leo, and strengthen Amazon’s position in the government and aviation market (and incidentally remove Telesat’s biggest commercial customer for Lightspeed),” he said.
In his view, pairing Viasat’s spectrum and geostationary satellites with Amazon’s low Earth orbit network could boost its government and aviation business, while sharpening its challenge to SpaceX.
ASTS’ Rival Play Faces An Uphill Battle
AST SpaceMobile’s rival effort would face funding and management hurdles, according to Farrar. “I’m also told AST has attempted to put together a rival bid, but that would require significant support from the telcos, and would be vehemently opposed by Viasat management,” he said.
“In contrast, selling Viasat to Amazon could be seen as a graceful exit, before Viasat’s current GEO business is overwhelmed by LEO competition.” However, Farrar did not disclose a potential deal value or name the telecom companies that might back AST.
He also predicted an Amazon takeover would end Equatys, Viasat’s venture with Space42, as a satellite project. But Amazon would still need to work with Space42 to coordinate L-band spectrum access in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
Globalstar Gives Amazon A Head Start
The speculation comes shortly after the FCC approved Amazon’s $11.5 billion Globalstar acquisition, advancing its push into direct-to-device satellite connectivity. The deal is expected to close in 2027. It would give Amazon 25 megahertz of internationally harmonized mobile-satellite spectrum and infrastructure to connect phones and other devices directly to satellites.
The FCC said the deal could expand coverage, strengthen emergency communications, and put the spectrum to greater use, with no likely material public-interest harms. Amazon also has a pending application for up to 5,105 D2D satellites and has agreed to continue supporting Apple’s satellite services.
Amazon’s Rise Puts ASTS Under Pressure
Farrar said telecom operators are increasingly seeing Amazon as a counterweight to SpaceX. “In the D2D market, Amazon is seen as the most realistic potential savior by the telcos, as belief that AST will ever deliver a useful service ebbs away,” he said.
Still, a telecom joint venture appeared poised to sign memorandums of understanding with both companies, he added. Amazon’s rollout speed and potential U.S. capacity also is uncertain.
Farrar flagged risks in AST’s Ligado spectrum arrangement. “And AST’s relationship with Ligado remains tense: Ligado does not benefit at all from the high valuations now being put on MSS spectrum, because AST pays Ligado just enough to cover the ongoing lease payments to Viasat,” he said. He suggested that Ligado could surrender spectrum rights in a U.S. government settlement, potentially leaving AST exposed.
Analyst Sees EchoStar As SpaceX’s Next Target
Farrar linked the “missing pieces” Musk mentioned during SpaceX’s results call last week to a possible stock-based acquisition of EchoStar’s remaining business. In Farrar’s view, a deal could give SpaceX DISH Wireless network assets and additional AWS-3 and CBRS spectrum, while potentially replacing cash payments for previously agreed AWS-4 and Band 70 purchases.
“And it would not be surprising if the deal was announced as soon as next week, given that mediation is scheduled through November 4, although Ergen is known for being a tough negotiator and might make it hard to reach an agreement on price,” Farrar said.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About AMZN, ASTS And VSAT?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS was ‘bearish’ amid ‘low’ message volume, while VSAT drew ‘bullish’ sentiment amid ‘high’ volume and AMZN sentiment was ‘neutral’ amid ‘normal’ volume.
AMZN shares are up 10% year-to-date, while ASTS has fallen 42% and VSAT has surged 127%.
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