Airtel’s stock rose after matching Jio’s tariff hike, with SEBI analyst Stocklution saying Jio’s move is reshaping the sector’s profitability path.
Bharti Airtel shares rose on Wednesday after the company joined rival Reliance Jio in scrapping its entry-level prepaid plan priced at ₹249, which offered 1 GB of daily data.
The move, effective from Wednesday, lifts the minimum starting point for mobile data usage to 1.5 GB per day plans, priced higher for consumers.
SEBI-registered analyst Stocklution said Reliance Jio’s latest tariff hike is not just a price change but the final move in a decade-long chess game.
The analyst recalled that Jio’s 2016 entry triggered a brutal price war with free voice and cheap 4G, forcing consolidation and permanently reshaping the telecom landscape.
Subscriber Shifts and Profitability Trends
Stocklution noted that the subscriber shift since then has been historic, with Jio rising from 0% market share in 2016 to 42% in 2025, Airtel climbing from 24% to 33%, while Vodafone Idea slid from 32% to 15%.
The analyst added that the price war crushed industry profitability, with average revenue per user (ARPU) hitting rock bottom before beginning to recover.
Jio’s ARPU improved from ₹130 in 2018 to ₹182 in 2025, Airtel’s rose from ₹105 to ₹208, and Vodafone Idea’s from ₹89 to ₹145.
According to Stocklution, Jio’s move to scrap its cheapest plan is a deliberate power play to drag the entire industry’s ARPU higher.
Technical Outlook
On technicals, Stocklution said Reliance’s chart shows immense strength, breaking out of a multi-month resistance and successfully retesting that zone as support.
The analyst identified ₹1,265 as the key level, with a hold above confirming the bullish thesis, while a break below would suggest investors questioning the pivot.
For Airtel, Stocklution highlighted its resilience and relative strength, saying the stock consolidated from October 2024 to February 2025 while others were weak, a sign of institutional accumulation. The analyst pointed to ₹1,770 as the critical support keeping its healthy uptrend intact.
Vodafone Idea’s challenges were brutally reflected in its technicals, as evidenced by the monthly chart, which shows a painful long-term downtrend. Stocklution said the stock remains near its COVID-era lows, underlining its massive underperformance and ongoing fight for survival.
What Is The Retail Mood?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Reliance was ‘bullish’ with ‘normal’ message volume, while Airtel was ‘neutral’ with ‘normal’ volume, and Vodafone Idea was ‘neutral’ with ‘high’ message volume.
So far this year, Airtel has gained 21.3%, Reliance is up 16.5%, while Vodafone Idea has slipped 13.9%.
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