Brokerage firms, both domestic and global, continue to remain positive on Adani Energy Solutions (AESL) even as the utilities player reported a mixed set of numbers in the quarter and half-year ended on September 30, 2025. Analysts are positive on strong execution and robust capex plans of the company.
Adani Energy Solutions reported a 21 per cent fall on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in net profit at Rs 534 crore for the quarter ended on September 30, 2025. The Adani Group firm’s revenue from operations rose 7 per cent YoY to Rs 6,596 crore in Q2FY26, while Adani Group’s Ebitda grew 9.5 per cent YoY to Rs 1,825 crore for the quarter.
Under segment results, transmission business recorded a 3 per cent YoY rise in revenue to Rs 2371.96 crore, distribution business revenue rose 4 per cent YoY to Rs 3117.9 crore and smart meter revenue surged to Rs 181.6 crore from Rs 7.6 crore. It installed 18.2 lakh new meters, reaching a total mark of 73.7 lakh smart meters in Q2.
Adani Energy Solutions settled at Rs 967.55 on Wednesday, rising more than 5 per cent for the day. The total market capitalization of the company stood at Rs 1.16 lakh crore. It has gained more than 11 per cent in a month. The stock has jumped nearly 65 per cent from its 52-week low.
September quarter Ebitda was 4 per cent above estimates on better operational performance in the transmission segment. Management reiterated FY26E capex guidance of Rs 16,000-18,000 crore vs Rs 6,000 crore done in 1H and maintained Rs 15,000 crore transmission capitalization guidance. Smart metering is a new high-growth area, said Jefferies.
“We maintain our target price Rs 1,100 based on 15 times EV/Ebitda September 27E. This is a premium to our implied 10 times target EV/Ebitda multiple for Power Grid, given the much higher growth in AESL in FY25-28E,” it added. It cited inability to maintain interest rate and market share loss as downside risks for the company.
The company continues to benefit from its diverse business mix, strong order pipeline, and leadership in operational efficiency, said Cantor Fitzgerald Research. “We believe investors are under-appreciating its role in India’s electrification journey. Our price target of Rs 1,096 is based on an FY27E EV/Ebitda target multiple of 12 times, which reflects a modest premium to peers,” it said.
Execution risks include delays in commissioning HVDC and RE-corridor projects, which could defer revenue recognition; the smart-meter rollout also faces risk, as a slower installation pace or state-level delays could push out the annuity ramp-up; and regulatory/ tariff risk persists, with AESL’s distribution business and interstate projects remaining vulnerable to approvals and tariff-reset decisions, it cited as key risks.
AESL’ underlying operating revenue and EBITDA came in at rose up to 10 per cent owing to additional revenue from new transmission assets and increase in installed base of smart meters. Distribution revenue was impacted by extended monsoons in Mumbai and divestment of Dahanu plant in Q2FY25, said ICICI Securities.
AESL’s execution pipeline remains strong; transmission execution pipeline at Rs 6,00 crore. The transmission bidding pipeline is estimated at INR 1trn. This excludes the Khavda-Olpad HVDC project where AESL is L1. It has orders of 24.6 million smart meters with Ebitda potential of Rs 25,500 crore; it has installed 1.8 million meters in Q2,” it said with a ‘buy’ and a target price of Rs 1,127.
Elara Capital kept a target price of Rs 1,169 per share for the stock, while maintaining its ‘buy’ rating. The latest target price implies an upside potential of nearly 27 percent from the stock’s previous closing price. It said that Adani Energy is poised for robust growth across transmission, distribution, and smart meters.