AAL Stock Slides As Fuel Costs Cloud 2026 Outlook – CEO Flags ‘Historically High Fuel Prices’

• American Airlines reported third-quarter revenue of $16.3 billion, up 19.3% year over year and above the $16.21 billion analyst estimate.
• The airline reported an adjusted loss of $0.28 per diluted share, narrower than the $0.36 loss expected, according to estimates compiled by Fiscal A.I.
• The airline expects fourth-quarter fuel expense to rise about $2.8 billion year over year, assuming an average fuel price of about $4.70 per gallon.

American Airlines Group (AAL) shares were in focus Thursday after the airline reported third-quarter revenue above estimates and an adjusted loss narrower than analyst estimates compiled by Fiscal AI, but projected a full-year adjusted loss. A projected $2.8 billion increase in fourth-quarter fuel expenses adds pressure as the airline prepares for slower network growth next year. 

“While historically high fuel prices significantly impacted our financial results, our focus remains on restoring profitability and building a stronger American for the long term,” CEO Robert Isom said.

AAL shares traded 4% lower in premarket trading at the time of writing. 

Revenue Tops Estimates

American reported third-quarter revenue of $16.3 billion, up 19.3% year over year and slightly above analysts’ $16.21 billion estimate. Its adjusted net loss came to $182 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, narrower than the expected loss of $0.36 per share, according to estimates compiled by Fiscal A.I. On a GAAP basis, the airline reported a net loss of $269 million, or $0.41 per diluted share. 

Premium revenue rose 22.9% year over year, while Main Cabin revenue increased 19.5%. Managed corporate revenue climbed 27.6%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

Fuel Bill Jumps $1.9 Billion

American’s fuel expense rose $1.9 billion, or 67.5%, year over year in the third quarter. The airline paid an average of $3.85 per gallon during the period.

For the fourth quarter, American expects an average fuel price of approximately $4.70 per gallon, based on the forward fuel curve as of Oct. 19. At that price, fuel expense is expected to increase by approximately $2.8 billion compared with the same period last year.

CFO Devon May pointed to the airline’s non-fuel cost performance, saying, “Our long-term focus on efficiency supported industry-leading unit cost results in the quarter, with CASM-ex increasing 3.0% year over year.”

AAL Forecasts Full-Year Adjusted Loss

American expects an adjusted loss of $0.50 to $1.10 per diluted share in the fourth quarter and a full-year 2026 adjusted loss of $1.00 to $1.60 per diluted share.

The revised outlook replaces American’s previous full-year guidance, issued in July, which ranged from an adjusted loss of $0.65 to adjusted earnings of $0.65 per diluted share.

The airline expects fourth-quarter revenue to grow 19.5% to 22.5% year over year. However, it expects elevated fuel prices to slow network growth in 2027 compared with 2026.

How Retail Views AAL

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward AAL remained in the ‘bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours, amid ‘high’ message volumes. AAL is also one of the trending tickers in the platform at the time of writing.

One Stocktwits user predicted that AAL shares could fall into single-digit territory.

Another user said American Airlines was losing money and predicted that Delta Airlines (DAL) and United Airlines (UAL)  would be the last airlines left standing.

AAL shares have dropped over 20% year-to-date.

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