Wildfire smoke is becoming a major health crisis in the US, with rising deaths linked to toxic air pollution. A Stanford-led study warns of up to 70,000 annual deaths by 2050 if climate change continues unchecked, costing $608 billion each year.
Wildfires have become a more frequent and severe issue in recent years, particularly in Canada and the western United States. These fires produce vast amounts of smoke that spreads over millions of people, leading to smoky skies in many parts of the country. Scientists are now warning that the health effects of this smoke are more severe than previously thought, and the situation is expected to worsen in the coming decades.
Changes in climate like warmer temperatures and drier conditions are causing fires to grow larger, occur more frequently, and last longer. These fires spread further and linger in the air for longer periods. A recent study conducted by researchers at Stanford University, published in the journal Nature, estimates that if global warming continues without significant intervention, wildfire smoke could be responsible for an additional 30,000 deaths annually in the United States by 2050.
This important study involved scientists from Stanford University, the University of California San Diego, the University of Washington, Princeton University, and several other leading research institutions.
No Community Is Safe from Smoke
The researchers found that no community in the United States is safe from the effects of wildfire smoke. When the costs of these deaths are calculated, they could reach an estimated $608 billion each year by 2050, assuming current trends continue. This figure would exceed the total economic damage caused by other climate-related issues in the United States, such as heat-related deaths, crop losses, and damage from storms.
Minghao Qiu, the lead author of the study, explained, “There are larger increases on the West Coast, but there’s also long-range transport of wildfire smoke across the country, including massive recent smoke events in the Eastern and Midwestern U.S. from Canadian fires.”
Why Wildfire Smoke Is So Dangerous
Wildfire smoke contains a mixture of harmful chemicals that people breathe in during and after fires. Breathing in this smoke can be fatal, with deaths continuing up to three years after the initial exposure, according to the study.
Scientists are concerned about tiny particles in smoke known as PM2.5, which are so small that they can enter the deep parts of the lungs and even the bloodstream. Presently, not much is known about the specific effects of PM2.5 from wildfire smoke. Recent research has shown that wildfire smoke contains many toxic chemicals that can pose serious health risks.
To better understand these risks, the researchers analyzed death records from across the United States between 2006 and 2019. They also used climate models to forecast future fire activity and smoke pollution under various global warming scenarios up to 2050.
The Grim Numbers
The results of the study are alarming. If current trends continue, deaths linked to smoke pollution could increase by more than 70%, rising from about 40,000 deaths each year today to 70,000 deaths per year by 2050. The states expected to see the most significant increase in smoke-related deaths include California, New York, Washington, Texas, and Pennsylvania.
The study also looked at the economic consequences of these deaths. Even if global warming is kept below 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, as is the goal of the Paris Agreement, wildfire smoke-related deaths in the United States are still likely to reach over 60,000 per year by 2050.
What Can Be Done?
Public health officials and communities can help by improving indoor air quality with better filtration systems, especially for vulnerable groups such as children, pregnant women, and individuals with asthma or cancer. Controlled burns and careful forest management can help reduce the size and intensity of wildfires, thereby limiting the amount of smoke they produce. It is becoming a national health crisis that could result in tens of thousands of deaths each year if climate change continues without significant intervention.