You know a relationship is in trouble when one side refuses to even pick up the phone. Reports say PM Narendra Modi refused to take U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls four times in recent weeks.
This week, Trump made the tensions worse by slapping 50% tariffs on India-even though India is seen as an important U.S. partner against China.
Being suddenly treated this way has shocked and angered New Delhi, forcing India to start looking for new foreign-policy options, reports Foreign Policy.Com PM Modi will show independence from Washington by visiting Beijing this week for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, a group led by China that works on economic and security ties.
This will be Modi’s first China visit since 2018 and signals a possible warming of India-China relations after the deadly border clashes in 2020. Now, China and Russia will try to win India’s support, taking advantage of Modi’s rift with Trump. But India will remain cautious.
India’s foreign policy has been about balancing relations with many powers, especially democracies with advanced technology. Experts say this is still the best long-term strategy. Fully siding with China and Russia could be risky and may backfire on India.
Trump’s policy is a big break from past U.S. strategy. For the last 20 years, Washington supported India’s rise, believing it would also help America in the long run. Now, Trump has abandoned this approach and replaced it with impulsive actions focused only on quick trade gains. This move is seen as a serious mistake, because India is crucial as a long-term counter to China.
India also bears some responsibility for its troubles. New Delhi followed a policy of multi-alignment-working with Western countries while also keeping ties with Russia and Iran. Biden’s U.S. tolerated this balancing, seeing India’s importance. But Trump’s team reacted sharply, adding tariffs after India bought Russian oil.
Till early this year, India believed it could handle Trump, but Modi’s team realized too late this was a mistake. At home, Modi took risks by moving closer to Washington, facing criticism from those supporting traditional nonalignment.
Now, with Trump suddenly reversing course, this has caused political uproar inside India. India’s foreign policy now faces serious dilemmas. The idea of multi-alignment is to keep good relations with many major powers at once. But in recent years, India mainly focused on the U.S., Quad partners (Australia and Japan), and Europe. Now, with the U.S. partnership collapsing, the main pillar of this strategy is falling apart.
India is now looking at new options. Both China and Russia seem attractive. As a first step, Modi called Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping after the crisis with Washington. Last week, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar went to Moscow to meet Putin, who is expected to visit India later this year.
Russia and China may look like alternatives to replace reduced U.S. cooperation. India already has deep ties with Russia in defense and energy, which could be further expanded.
China is a tougher option because of border disputes and regional rivalry in South Asia. When Modi first became PM, he was open to working closely with China, but China’s rigid stance and stronger U.S. ties pushed him away.
With Washington turning hostile, those in New Delhi who warned against trusting the U.S. feel vindicated (proven right). Stronger ties with Russia look like an easy option. Repairing ties with China is also possible.
At the SCO summit, Modi and Xi may announce small steps, such as increasing commercial flights. But the bigger issue depends on China’s attitude. So far, Beijing has not shown interest in solving India’s long-term concerns like the Himalayan border disputes and Chinese naval moves in the Indian Ocean. Even with current pressures, fully shifting to China and Russia would be a big mistake.
India’s recent foreign-policy choices were based on real needs for development and growth. To grow fast, India needs foreign investment-and that usually comes from rich, advanced countries.
India also needs technology transfers for industry and digital growth, which China and Russia are unlikely to share. Above all, handling an aggressive China is India’s long-term challenge.
Trump’s tough stance does not change these basic realities. As India looks at its choices, three key points must be remembered.
First, the problem with the U.S. may not last. Trump often changes his mind, so a face-saving deal that reduces tensions is still possible. If such an agreement is reached, Trump might visit New Delhi this fall (this autumn season, around September-November) for the planned Quad summit. Here, ‘this fall’ simply means the autumn months of the year.
Second, Russia and China cannot give India what it needs for long-term growth and security. India has been slowly moving away from Russian weapons, searching for modern and more reliable suppliers. Russia can still provide cheap energy, but not advanced technology or major investments.China is seen with deep suspicion by Indian security agencies, who view it as the main long-term threat. To handle China, India needs strong partners elsewhere.
Third, India has choices beyond just the U.S. or China. It can deepen security ties with Australia and Japan, and also work closely with South Korea, a big arms producer. European nations want stronger ties, and a trade deal with the European Union may soon happen. India can also build relations with other advanced middle powers like Israel and the UAE in the Middle East, and Singapore and Malaysia in Southeast Asia.
Still, abandoning partnerships with advanced democracies for authoritarian powers would be a mistake. Democracies like the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Australia can provide modern technology, investments, innovation, and reliable cooperation that directly help India’s growth and security.
On the other hand, authoritarian powers like China and Russia may offer short-term support such as cheap energy or arms, but they cannot provide the advanced technology, transparency, or trust India needs in the long run.
So, India’s future lies in working with democracies, even if the relationship with the U.S. is currently under strain.