New Delhi: Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has predicted a landslide victory for the United Democratic Front (UDF) in the April 9 Kerala assembly elections. Rahul said the bloc will win as many as 100 of the 140 constituencies in the state.
The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) will have a say in that as the alliance is fighting to win a third term in the state.
With days to go for the voting, the campaigning is in full flow. Parties and alliances have announced various sops for the voters with almost all of them targeting women voters.
What happened in 2021
Since the 1980s, Kerala always voted out the incumbent. It never cared for personalities or politics. This revolving door politics got a break in 2021 when LDF stormed back to power and Pinarayi Vijayan became CM for a second term.
It was a shock loss for the Congress led-UDF as the party has won 19 of the 20 seats on offer. The party was confident of winning the state. But the LDF was able to retain its last bastion in India.
Political commentators attributed LDF’s win to several factors, including its handling of the Covid-19 crisis as well as the floods that ravaged the state.
With a good showing in 2024 general elections in Kerala again coupled with its excellent performance in last years’ local body elections, UDF, read Congress, will be hoping to forget the ghosts of 2021.
Now, in case the party wins after votes are counted on May 4, it will face a huge task to choose a CM candidate. The grand old party has so far refrained to name someone as their CM candidate. It helped the party in Himachal Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka.
The hopefuls
K C Venugopal, considered a close confidant of Rahul Gandhi, is seen as one of the favourites. K C as he is popularly known has accompanied Rahul during his visits to the state. K C could be the chosen one. Only thing works against is him being a Member of Parliament. If he is appointed then someone has to vacate the seat and a fresh election for that particular seat will have to be conducted within six months.
If not him, then the Congress can chose from former LoP Ramesh Chennithala and current LoP VD Satheesan. Out of the two, Satheesan is said to be K C’s man in Kerala. If the party chose to appoint an MLA instead of MP then Satheesan could turn out to be frontrunner.
While Shashi Tharoor’s name has also discussed in the party circles, he is not likely to get the approval from the party high command after he went against party stand multiple times. Some other candidates are KPCC president K Sudhakaran and K Muraleedharan.
Congress – A divided house
The political commentators have Congress as their favourite this time around. Since its loss in 2021. Congress has also performed well in byelections. The party is going all guns blazing with senior party leaders including Rahul Gandhi leading from the front.
But, the Congress will be vary of a divided house. Multiple camps have emerged in the party. It will also be a challenge for the party to take on Vijayan, the party lacks a pan-state leader and will look to tap into ward level members help party cross the finish line.
It would be a herculean task for Congress and the party high command to keep their flock together as can be seen in Karnataka. A divided house was the reason for its losses in Haryana and Chhattisgarh.