A new study links extreme heatwaves to emissions from major fossil fuel and cement companies. These “carbon majors” are responsible for over half of global warming, making heatwaves up to 200 times more likely. Scientists call for accountability.
The Earth is warming at an unprecedented rate. More and more regions across the globe are experiencing extreme and dangerous heatwaves, and now scientists have clear evidence linking much of this to greenhouse gases released by the largest fossil fuel and cement companies.
Last summer, temperatures climbed above 40°C in Europe and Mediterranean region. Forests caught fire, people suffered heat-related illnesses, and many economies were disrupted. These extreme heat events are now becoming more frequent, more intense, and more deadly around the globe.
What the New Research Shows
A recent study led by researchers from ETH Zurich has confirmed that human-caused climate change is a major factor behind these heatwaves. The team studied 213 heatwave events across all seven continents from 2000 to 2023. These included any heatwaves that caused serious harm, such as deaths and economic loss.
Heatwaves Now Up to 200 Times More Likely
The study found that between 2000 and 2009, climate change made heatwaves about 20 times more likely than they were during the period from 1850 to 1900, before large-scale industrial emissions began. Between 2010 and 2019, they became as much as 200 times more likely.
Who Is Responsible?
The team focused on the 180 largest fossil fuel and cement producers, known as “carbon majors.” These companies are responsible for about 60% of all carbon dioxide emissions from human activities since 1850. These emissions trap heat in the atmosphere, leading to global warming.
The results showed that just 14 of the 180 companies were responsible for half of the warming caused by all carbon majors combined. These include major oil and gas producers such as Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, and ExxonMobil, as well as some of the largest coal producers in Russia and China.
In fact, even the smallest company on the list, the Russian coal company Elgaugol, contributed enough emissions to be linked to 16 separate heatwaves. Meanwhile, the largest companies each contributed to over 50 heatwaves that likely wouldn’t have occurred without climate change.
Researchers say these companies have added responsibility because of the massive scale of their emissions and their efforts to delay action on climate change.
What’s Next?
This type of research, known as an attribution study, helps scientists connect extreme events to specific causes, in this case, individual companies. By calculating how much each company contributed to certain heatwaves, it could open the door to legal accountability based on the “polluter pays” principle. In simple terms, this means those who cause the damage should help pay for it.
Researchers now plan to use the same methods to study other extreme events, such as floods, wildfires, and droughts, to see how much influence major carbon producers have had on those disasters.