A new turn seems to be coming in the war between America and Iran. Media reports have claimed that if America attacks Kharg Island again, Iran can block the ‘Bab al-Mandeb’ strait. Iran has given this threat to America. The ‘Bab el-Mandeb’ strait is one of the world’s important trade routes. Gas and oil passes through this route in the Middle East, Europe and Asia. This development has come to light at a time when Tehran has rejected America’s ceasefire proposal and put forward its own demands.
According to media reports, America is now preparing for a ground attack on Iran, hence Iran has warned Trump by directly threatening to block the ‘Bab al-Mandeb’ strait. Now the question is that how special is the ‘Bab Al-Mandeb’ strait route for the world, where will its closure have a direct impact and is there any alternative to this route?
What is ‘Bab el-Mandeb’ Strait?
Just as oil and gas reach the world through the sea route of the Strait of Hormuz, in the same way the ‘Bab al-Mandeb’ strait is also a very special trade route. It is also called the gate of tears. The Bab el-Mandeb Route connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. It is located between Yemen and the countries of Djibouti and Eritrea located in the Horn of Africa area. Like Hormuz, it is an important route for trade and energy supplies to the world. This route connects Europe, Africa and West Asia.
Map of the ‘Bab el-Mandeb’ strait.
How much oil passes through this path?
12 percent of the total oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passing through the sea route passes through this route. According to the US Department of Energy, the Bab el-Mandeb Canal transported approximately 8.8 million barrels of oil per day and large quantities of LNG in 2023. It is also an important route for ships heading for the Suez Canal.
Danger of what?
Every year, goods worth 1 trillion dollars (93.95 lakh crore rupees) are transported through this trade route of the Red Sea. Houthi rebels are active in Yemen, who are considered allies of Iran. Houthi rebels attacked ships in the Red Sea during the Gaza war. He carried out these attacks in support of the Palestinian people. Now if Iran takes any step for this route, then Houthi rebels can create a new crisis by disrupting the oil supply.
Houthi rebels (Photo- Brookings)
The special thing is that amidst all the security efforts of America and European countries, Houthi rebels sank four ships in the Red Sea. Already many shipping companies are avoiding sailing through the Red Sea. Since the beginning of the Iran war, many experts have kept an eye on the Houthis.
What will happen if the road is blocked?
If the route to Bab el-Mandeb is blocked, as is the case with Hormuz, ships will have to take a much longer route by detouring around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa. Due to this, the journey of 20 to 25 days will become longer by 30 to 40 days. As a result, the cost of transportation of goods will increase. Goods will be expensive. With this, things will have to take a long time to reach their destination.
What will happen if Iran and Houthi come forward openly?
If the Houthis achieve a full military alliance with Iran and a Bab al-Mandeb closure, the Red Sea will become a completely no-go zone, oil prices will skyrocket again and global trade will be even more severely affected.
Youssef Sherif, director of the Tunis-based Columbia Global Center, says the Houthis’ blockade of Bab al-Mandeb is part of “Iran’s three-phase strategy.” First came the Iranian attacks which blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Then there were attacks on Lebanon which diverted Israel’s attention. “And now the Houthi rebels could come forward, blocking the Bab el-Mandeb canal.”
For now, it will be interesting to see what Iran’s next step will be.
Also read: Which 5 countries including India did Iran give permission to take out ships from Hormuz?