America-Israel’s coup plan in Iran failed. Mossad’s plan was to instigate rebellion by killing top leaders in a 4-5 day attack. This did not happen even after 25 days, instead Iran has increased the scope of war and economic crisis.
The plan was that they would attack for four-five days, in the meantime they would kill Iran’s top leaders, bring people angry with the government out on the streets and bring in a new leadership of their choice by carrying out a coup. This was the plan of America and Israel at the time of attack on Iran. They had thought that they would return after finishing the game in four-five days, but this entire plan was badly defeated. It has been 25 days since the war, but there is no news of any major protests from Iran nor are there any signs of change in power. On the contrary, Iran has given a big blow to America and Israel, has increased the scope of the war and has created a big crisis on the oil and economy front.
Changing regime in Iran has been a long-standing dream of Israel and America. Even though they may have been citing many reasons like stopping Iran from making nuclear weapons, stopping attacks on democracy supporters or stopping support to terrorist groups, the real objective of this war was always to overthrow the current government of Iran. America and Israel had made plans accordingly. When the war started, Trump and Netanyahu were confident that their plan would succeed. Netanyahu had convinced President Trump for this only on the basis of a report by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. The New York Times has revealed this in its report by talking to 14 security and intelligence officials of America and Israel.
Mossad’s plan, Netanyahu and Trump’s confidence
According to the New York Times report, it all started with a plan by Mossad. When America and Israel were preparing for war, Mossad Chief David Barnia approached Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with this plan. The Mossad Chief said that he can lead Iran’s opposition groups in such a way that the regime will be overthrown within a few days of the start of the war. The Mossad Chief, who visited Washington in mid-January, also presented this plan to senior officials of the Trump administration.
Netanyahu gave the green signal to this plan. However, some senior American officials and some people from other Israeli intelligence agencies were doubtful about the success of this plan. But Netanyahu and President Trump were very hopeful. They felt that the war could be ended quickly by killing Iran’s top leaders at the beginning and promoting regime change through intelligence operations. With this in mind, Trump, while addressing the people of Iran at the beginning of the war, said, ‘When we finish all this, you take back your government.’
It has been said in the report that senior American officials and experts from the Israeli Defense Force’s intelligence agency ‘Aman’ had viewed this plan of Mossad with suspicion from the beginning. The US Army had clearly told Trump that when America and Israel bomb, the people of Iran will not take to the streets and demonstrate. The American Intelligence Department had also made it clear that there is very little possibility of any major mass movement to change the regime in Iran and this attack will not lead to any civil war.
Mossad’s plan path
The CIA had studied in detail what would happen in Iran if war started. The CIA believed that the Iranian government was unlikely to collapse completely. Yes, there can be mutual fighting between armed groups within the government, which can lead to a civil war-like situation. But even if this happens, they will support their religious leaders instead of democracy. That is, only people with radical thinking were more likely to come to power.
Regime change in Iran has been a long-standing desire of Israel. Before current Mossad Chief David Barnia, Yossi Cohen had also considered this. But he believed that it was not possible to change power through internal protests and putting in effort into it was a waste of time. Therefore, he ordered this plan to be shelved. Instead, they decided to prioritize imposing sanctions, assassinating nuclear scientists and military leaders, and attacking nuclear targets. But when David Barnia became the new Chief, he changed the old decision. Change of power again came on the top list of Mossad. He convinced the Mossad that the regime could be overthrown by attacking Iran and killing its top leaders. Barnia was successful in convincing Netanyahu and Trump also. And this is how the plan to attack Iran was finalized.
Where was the mistake in the plan?
This hope of instigating a major internal rebellion in Iran failed miserably. According to the New York Times report, this was the biggest fundamental mistake in the preparations for the war. Netanyahu and Trump are now realizing this mistake and it is reflected in their words as well. The report said that Netanyahu was very angry on this matter. At a security meeting a few days after the war began, Netanyahu angrily said that Trump could decide to end the war at any moment, but that the Mossad’s efforts had so far yielded no results.
This changed stance was even more clearly visible in Netanyahu’s press conference on Thursday. He said, ‘Revolutions cannot be started from the sky, for this it is necessary to intervene on the ground also.’ He also said, ‘It is too early to say whether the Iranian people will take advantage of the situation and take to the streets or not. I hope so. We are moving towards the same goal. Whether it will happen or not depends only on them. Just two weeks after the war, President Trump had also reached the same conclusion. Speaking on Fox News Radio on March 12, Trump said that Iran’s security forces were firing machine guns at protesters who took to the streets. Trump said, ‘It will be very difficult for common people without weapons to overcome this. There will be a revolution, but perhaps not immediately.
Kurdish plan also failed
When Iranian protesters did not take to the streets, the second plan was to field Iranian-Kurdish armed groups operating in northern Iraq. In recent years, the CIA and Mossad had provided weapons to the Kurdish forces. In the early days of the war, Israel also bombed northwestern Iran to allow Kurdish forces to advance. But, the Kurdish army refused to enter Iran. Bafel Talabani, president of the ‘Patriotic Union of Kurdistan’, said in an interview to Fox News that there is no such plan. “The further advance of the Kurds will be counterproductive,” he said. Iranian people are very nationalistic. If they fear the country’s division due to attacks by external Kurds, they will unite against the Kurds.
Later, America also withdrew from the plan to involve the Kurds in ground combat. Trump himself revealed that a week after the war started, he had clearly told the Kurdish leaders not to send their troops to Iran. Trump said he did not want the Kurds to go there. Turkey had also warned the Trump administration not to support this move by the Kurds.