There was a lot of pressure on domestic markets this month due to Iran-Israel war, falling rupee, continuous outflow of FIIs and fuel supply concerns. The special thing is that due to this pressure, last week there was a decline of 5.3 percent in the stock market. When trading resumes on Monday, several important events taking place this week are likely to impact investor sentiment. However, on Friday, the 50-share Nifty fell 488.05 points, or 2.06 percent, to close at 23,151.10.
As the selling increased, the index moved further away from the 200-DMA, Rupak Dey, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, said in an ET report. He further said that the RSI has moved into the oversold zone and the trend remains weak. They expect further downside as the RSI remains in deep oversold territory.
Dey said that in the short term, the trend may remain weak, and any gains are likely to be followed by selling. On the downside, the index may fall towards 23,00022,800, while resistance lies at 23,400. Let us also tell you, what are those 9 big factors, which are going to decide the condition and direction of the stock market?
Iran-Israel War
By the time trading begins in global markets on Monday, the Iran-Israel war will have entered its 17th day. As long as this conflict continues, it is expected that there will be panic in the markets. There are no signs of any kind of reconciliation between the warring parties. AFP reported that Iran has vowed that it will teach its enemies in America and Israel a big lesson, which they will never forget.
AFP quoted Iranian diplomat Esmail Baqai as saying that we cannot accept that they occasionally talk about negotiations and ceasefires, and then we have to face a repetition of the same crimes and war. Our army is fully determined to teach a tough and unforgettable lesson to the enemy.
fed meeting
This week, everyone’s eyes will be on the policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve, because there is concern that if the current conflict prolongs, it may worsen the inflation equations. The rate setting committee will begin its two-day meeting on Tuesday, March 17, and will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, March 18.
The central bank is widely expected to keep rates steady as inflation in the US remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index increased by 2.4 percent in February on a year-on-year basis.
US market
Domestic markets will also take cues from Wall Street. Major US indexes closed with a decline on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 119.38 points, or 0.26 percent, to 46,558.50. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 206.62 points, or 0.93 percent, to 22,105.40, while the S&P 500 fell 0.61 percent, or nearly 40 points, to 6,632.19.
crude oil prices
Everyone’s eyes will be on the prices of crude oil. Benchmark Brent and US WTI crude had risen more than 3 per cent in the last session, and may see further gains when trading resumes. US WTI crude futures settled at $ 99.31 per barrel, showing a gain of 3.58 or 3.74 percent. While Brent crude rose 3.43 percent or $ 3.41 and closed at $ 103.14 per barrel.
FII/DII profit booking
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold Indian shares worth Rs 10,716.64 crore on Friday. At the same time, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Rs 9,977.42 crore. FIIs sold shares worth Rs 52,704 crore in the first fortnight of March, with Friday registering the largest single-day outflow of 2026 so far. On a year-to-date basis, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have sold Indian shares worth Rs 66,051 crore.
keep an eye on the sector
The Iran-Israel/US conflict is affecting many sectors. If crude oil prices rise further, oil marketing companies (OMCs) may come under pressure, as rising input costs may impact their margins. On the other hand, Upstream Exploration Companies like ONGC and Oil India can benefit from rising oil prices.
Paint and tire companies, which use products made from crude oil as raw materials, may also face pressure. When the markets reopen, there may be movement in the shares of airline and tourism companies. With LPG shortage already impacting restaurants, the possibility of further decline in quick-service restaurant (QSR) shares cannot be ruled out.
technical indicators
Analyzing the Nifty chart, Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer, Master Capital Services, said that the index has decisively broken its crucial support level of 23,800 and is now trading at its lowest level in the last 10 months, indicating strong selling pressure in the market.
For the coming week, the psychological level of 23,000 will be very important. He said that if the index falls below this level, it can reach the level of 22,800 and even 22,500. He further said that on the upside, 23,800 and 24,050 will now act as strong resistance.
Until the index decisively recaptures the 24,000 level, our strategy will be to sell on rise. The market is still looking for its bottom amid rising tensions in the Middle East, so market volatility is expected to continue.
rupee vs dollar
The movement of the rupee against the US dollar will also be closely monitored. The Indian rupee fell to a record low on Friday. The reason for this was the concern that the rise in oil prices due to the Iran War could distort India’s growth-inflation dynamics and harm capital inflows.
The rupee weakened to 92.4750 per dollar, which was below its previous record low of 92.3575 made on Thursday. Ultimately it closed at 92.4550, which shows a decline of 0.7 percent this week. The benchmark Nifty 50 has slipped into the ‘correction zone’ since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28; The index declined by about 2 percent on Friday.
Analysts told Reuters that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could significantly damage the rupee’s future, and persistently high energy prices could push the rupee below 95 per dollar.
Eye on IPO
Activity in the primary market is expected to remain strong; This week three IPOs are opening for subscription and three companies are to be listed. Special attention will be kept on the mainboard IPO of GSP Crop Science and Central Mine Planning and Design Institute (CMPDI).
Agrochemical manufacturer GSP Crop Science is planning to raise Rs 400 crore through its public offering.
This IPO will open on 16 March. Will be closed on 18th March. Its price band has been fixed at Rs 304320 per share. The IPO of CMPDI, the consultancy arm of Coal India, will open on March 20 and close on March 24. Its gray market premium (GMP) is currently around Rs 24.
Meanwhile, the SME IPO of Novus Loyalty will open on March 17 and close on March 20. Its price band has been fixed at Rs 139146 per share, and the company aims to raise approximately Rs 60.15 crore. Shares of Rajputana Stainless, Apsis Aerocom and Raajmarg Infra Investment Trust are also going to be listed on the stock exchanges this week.