Chennai: As the arena for the upcoming Assembly elections begins to heat up, opinion poll results are being released periodically, creating a buzz across the state. In this context, an opinion poll conducted by the Loyola College Alumni Association’s Indian Political Democratic Strategies (IPDS) organization has revealed several key insights suggesting that the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is closing the gap with the DMK, with actor-turned-politician Vijay emerging as a formidable contender in the race for the Chief Minister’s post.
TVK’s projected electoral performance
According to the findings, reports suggest that Vijay is now within striking distance of Chief Minister M.K. Stalin in the race for the Chief Minister’s post. It is stated that in the upcoming Assembly elections, the TVK stands a chance of winning 50 seats, while there is a possibility of the party securing the second position in 80 constituencies. Furthermore, based on current trends, the TVK is estimated to command a vote bank of 1.40 crore voters. Should this figure rise further, it could deal a significant blow to both the DMK and the AIADMK.
The Tamil Nadu Assembly elections this time around feature a four-cornered contest. With the election dates expected to be announced soon, the results of various opinion polls are surfacing frequently.
Urban voter dynamics and support base
Regarding support among urban voters, the IPDS poll results indicate that Vijay is likely to fragment the vote shares of various parties—including the DMK, AIADMK, VCK, NTK, and BJP—in the upcoming election, potentially leading to a hung assembly. In urban areas, Vijay is projected to hold the second position, right behind the DMK.
Women and youth constitute 78 percent of the electorate, and among this demographic, the majority appear to favor Vijay. When asked who they support in urban areas, 24.77 percent of respondents chose the DMK, while 23.46 percent chose the TVK. The AIADMK followed with 20.55 percent, while the NTK secured 6.7 percent, the BJP 5.50 percent, the PMK 2.90 percent, and the Congress party 4.46 percent.
Women voters’ preference
Among women voters specifically, the DMK leads with 23.27 percent support, followed closely by the TVK at 21.23 percent. The AIADMK stands at 19.99 percent, with the BJP at 8.31 percent, PMK at 7.98 percent, NTK at 2.71 percent, Congress at 4.83 percent, VCK at 2.2 percent, and other parties at 9.42 percent.
Overall vote share projections
When analyzing party-wise support within the current political climate, the TVK emerges in the top spot with 19.20 percent, followed by the DMK at 17.70 percent and the AIADMK at 15.32 percent. The NTK stands at 6.00 percent, Congress at 4.5 percent, BJP at 3.50 percent, DMDK at 2.55 percent, VCK at 2.00 percent, other parties at 9.41 percent, while 20.26 percent of respondents remain undecided.
Shift in Chief Ministerial preference
Regarding who will be the Chief Minister in the 2026 election, although Chief Minister Stalin is viewed as the incumbent leader backed by the existing governmental and structural framework, public opinion based on the most frequently cited responses places Vijay in the top spot. While the previous two surveys identified Chief Minister Stalin as the preferred choice, the current survey indicates a shift in preference toward Vijay.
A comparative analysis of these three surveys, specifically focusing on respondents under the age of 40, projects the following ranking: Stalin and Vijay jointly secure first place, followed by Edappadi Palaniswami in second place, Annamalai in third, Seeman in fourth, and Kanimozhi and Udhayanidhi Stalin in fifth place.