Whales are holding Bitcoin off exchanges, a key indicator generally seen before price upticks.
- Bitcoin surpassed $71,000 on Tuesday, sparking speculation about a potential bull run.
- Analyst Crypto Tice stated that low-volume activity has historically preceded major price booms.
- However, analysts at Bitfinex warn that Bitcoin’s future movements are contingent on macroeconomic factors, such as high Brent crude prices, especially amid the political climate.
Bitcoin (BTC) has pushed past the $71,000 mark on Tuesday, but analysts believe that the most interesting market signal could actually be what the on-chain transactions are indicating. On-chain volume has dropped to multi-year lows, a pattern that some market watchers believe has appeared right before major Bitcoin rallies.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $70,774, up over 4% in the last 24 hours. It briefly hit $71,220 as the intraday high. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in ‘bullish’ territory, accompanied by ‘low’ chatter levels over the past day.
Analyst Flags Multi-Year Low In On-Chain Volume
In a post on X, cryptocurrency analyst Crypto Tice pointed out the trend, citing data showing that, despite Bitcoin’s recent bearish price trend, on-chain transaction volume has fallen to historically low levels.
“This is what the graveyard looks like before the resurrection,” the analyst wrote, “Nobody is moving coins. Nobody is trading. Nobody cares. That’s the signal.”
The analyst said these periods of low activity on the Bitcoin network have occurred before major price bumps, when buying and selling activity halts, and when long-term holders control the supply. According to the chart the analyst shared, Bitcoin’s adjusted on-chain volume is close to its lowest level in years. This has happened a few times before big bull market rallies.
Crypto Tice argued that the market could be entering what he described as “the calm before the most violent storm this cycle has seen.”
Where Is The Bitcoin Market Headed?
Other market commentators are also drawing similar conclusions.
Quinten Francois, a crypto analyst, shared a chart originally posted by trader Gordon, showing that Bitcoin’s long-term price structure still points to much higher levels.
“Connect the dots,” Francois wrote, pointing out times in Bitcoin’s price history when activity dropped, and consolidation happened before big price jumps.
Gordon was even more straightforward in his view, saying that the market might not be fully aware of the size of the next move. “Bitcoin is going to $1,000,000+, and people are panicking,” he said, urging people to “Look at the BIGGER picture.”
Whales Are Moving BTC Off Exchanges
According to Santiment, whales are moving Bitcoin off exchanges and holding it — reducing available supply, which often precedes price increases.
These signals come amid a complex macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop.
Bitfinex analysts, however, believe Bitcoin’s next move will depend heavily on broader macro conditions. In a statement to Stocktwits, the analysts noted that high Brent crude prices have historically fed into inflation expectations and real-yield pricing, potentially delaying the timeline for interest rate cuts.
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