Kolkata: The sharp volatility in crude prices have impacted the price of many items of everyday use such as cooking oil, coffee and gold. According to Japanese MNC brokerage Nomura these developments are likely to impact the margins of these businesses, pricing strategies and even consumer demand. Nomura has bet on the following FMCG stocks which, it has said carries the possibility of up to 29% upside.
Though crude prices have not yet been passed on to Indians in the form of retail prices of petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel, rising crude prices around the world have rocked the stock market. According to international brokerage house Nomura, crude price hikes can affect company margins, pricing strategies and even consumer demand in the coming quarters. Nomura has noted that prices of some significant raw materials such as crude oil and edible oil have started rising after remaining cool for several months. For some such as coffee and wheat, prices have eased. Let’s have a close look at the stocks.
Consumer stocks
Nomura is bullish on Nestle India, Britannia Industries, Tata Consumer Products, Marico and Dabur. For Britannia, the Japanese brokerage has set a target price of Rs 7,275 against a market price of Rs 5,981.50. For Tata Consumer Products, Nomura has assigned a target price of Rs 1,450 against a market price of Rs 1,103. For Marico, the target price is Rs 900 against a market price of Rs 785.50. The target price for Dabur is Rs 488 against Rs 477.75, which is the market price. Nomura’s opinion is, these companies can be able to manage cost pressures more efficiently since they have pricing flexibility as well as diversified products.
Nomura also said that firms such as Godrej Consumer Products, Hindustan Unilever and Colgate-Palmolive (India) could feel the pressure more if the prices of raw materials keep rising. “While raw materials are turning inflationary again, demand recovery is still gradual and volume growth remains below pre-Covid levels,” the broking major mentioned its report.
Coffee, wheat and copra
There are some raw materials the prices of which are not rising. Nomura mentioned how prices of some items are becoming softer. “Robusta coffee prices have softened and are down around 28% year-on-year,” said the brokerage. Arabica coffee has also recorded a decline in prices. For example, this can benefit Nestle which is a coffee major. So can other firms benefit which have coffee brands.
Wheat prices are also softening compared with those in 2025. Softer wheat prices will boost margins for food companies such as Britannia Industries, Nestle India and IT food segment. Marico can also benefit from the falling price of copra. This is an essential ingredient for coconut-based items such as hair oil.
Crude oil, packaging costs
Crude oil prices can be of adverse impact even in companies which do not deal in petroleum products. “Brent crude prices rose sharply 13% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of financial year-to-date 2026,” flagged Nomura. Higher crude oil prices can increase packaging costs for many consumer companies (if not transportation costs right now). Nomura said “high-density polyethylene (HDPE) prices have risen around 5% month-on-month,”. The signal, these can raise packaging expenses which use derivatives of petroleum products.
Edible oils prices
Edible oil prices are also an important factor. Palm oil prices were stable in February but are now showing signs of upward pressure. Nomura said “palm oil futures rose about 5% toward the end of February due to expectations of lower production in Malaysia.” Severe flooding in Sabah in Malaysia, a major palm oil producing region, can easily affect output. Simultaneously, demand can rise in this item due to its price being lower compared to other edible oils.
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