A new EY forecast shows the U.S. falling years behind China and Europe in electric vehicle uptake, as policy rollbacks and the end of consumer incentives weigh on demand.
Electric vehicle adoption in the U.S. is about to lose momentum as the $7,500 tax credit for buyers ends on Sept. 30.
A new forecast from EY now expects EVs won’t make up half of American car sales until 2039, five years later than earlier expected, with their market share creeping up only to 11% by 2029 from 8.1% last year, Bloomberg reported.
The weaker outlook reflects President Donald Trump’s rollback of emissions and fuel economy rules, elimination of penalties for automakers that miss standards, and cancellation of the EV incentive. EY said these moves will make EVs even harder to sell in a market already constrained by high prices and limited charging networks.
Automakers are scaling back investments as demand wanes. General Motors cut output at two EV factories last week, and Ford CEO Jim Farley told analysts the company is reducing EV spending “pretty massively” despite plans for lower-cost models.
EY expects the U.S. to fall years behind China and Europe, where stricter climate rules and richer incentives are set to push battery-electric vehicles past half of new sales by 2033 and 2032, respectively.
Researcher iSeeCars predicted the U.S. EV market share will drop to around 4% between 2026 and 2028 without incentives.
“With the $7,500 EV incentive ending on Sept. 30, we’ve hit peak electric vehicle sales and market share in the U.S. — at least for the next few years,” executive analyst Karl Brauer said, warning of a sharp decline in production, sales, and market share starting in the fourth quarter.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘bearish’ on General Motors amid ‘normal’ message volume, while sentiment on Ford was ‘neutral’ with ‘low’ message volume.
So far this year, General Motors is up 10.2%, while Ford has gained 25.4%.
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