The common man gets frightened at the mere sound of war. Stock markets start falling, the fear of rising inflation begins to haunt and the entire world holds its breath. But amidst this fear and devastation, a dark corner is growing in the digital world, where billions of rupees are gambled on human lives and the future of countries. The recent American attacks on Iran have once again exposed this ‘speculation market’. During the attack, about Rs 4,800 crore ($529 million) were invested in prediction markets in just a few hours.
‘War Casino’ worth Rs 4,800 crore
As soon as America started bombing Iran on February 28, online betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi were flooded with money. According to a Bloomberg report, a huge trade of $ 90 million (about Rs 750 crore) took place in the largest contract on Polymarket alone. In another contract which was dated January 31, bets worth $42 million were also taken. At the same time, on its rival platform Kalshi, a bet of $36 million was played on a question related to the possibility of ‘regime change’ in Iran.
Intelligence information was leaked in advance?
The biggest question is whether the intelligence information of the US Army was leaked in advance? Data analytics firm Bubblemaps has made a very shocking revelation. According to this firm, six new accounts were created on Polymarket in the month of February. Through these accounts, bets were placed only on the dates of possible US attacks. The surprising thing is that some of these bets were placed just hours before the bombs fell in Tehran and these six accounts together made a profit of almost $ 1 million. A bet of $26,513 was placed on a contract dated February 28, which made the bettor earn more than $1,74,000 in one go. Bubblesmaps CEO Nicholas Wyman clearly says that the atmosphere of war and the anonymity of the platform have encouraged those who already had insider intelligence to make huge profits.
From arrest to death…bids are placed on everything
There is no such thing as sensitivity left in these prediction markets. A January report by analytics company Polysites shows that there were huge bets on removing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from power by the end of March. The probability of his overthrow was fixed at 40 percent in the betting market, and 90 percent of the accounts investing in it were suspicious (with insider links). Local reports have now confirmed that Khamenei has lost his life in the American attacks. However, Kalshi, which is recognized by the American organization CFTC, has said that it does not allow betting on someone’s death and in such a situation the contract is settled at the final price only. In contrast, Polymarket is outside the scope of any US regulation and defends itself by calling it crowdsourced information. Earlier in January, when Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was arrested, a similar surprising pattern of betting had come to light.
‘Prediction’ is done by breaking into the intelligence system.
Recently, two people in Israel (a military reservist and a civilian) have been accused of earning $150,000 from Polymarket by using secret information about 2025 intelligence operations. This was the first criminal case of betting using intelligence information. There seems to be no limit to the greed of speculators. Amidst the ongoing tension in the Middle East, new contracts have now opened on Polymarket. People are betting money on whether any Gulf country will attack Iran this week or whether America will also take action against Iraq by March.