In an interview with Chinese media, highlighted by QQ_Timmy on X, Pua warned that the imbalance between AI driven demand and available memory supply could disrupt entire product categories. His remarks suggest that the aftershocks may continue until 2030, and possibly beyond.
《獨家專訪 #群聯 #Phison 執行長潘健成》
核心結論
1. 記憶體供需嚴重失衡將持續到2030年
AI為剛需，DRAM與NAND Flash極度缺貨。原廠要求預付3年貨款（電子業史無前例），賣方市場空前強勢。原廠內部預估缺到2030年，甚至10年不見盡頭。2. 消費電子將大量死亡… https://t.co/FvVnb8tT2I
— 駿HaYaO (@QQ_Timmy) February 14, 2026
Foundries demand three-year prepayments
As per Wccftech, one of the strongest statements came directly from the CEO. “Foundries are demanding 3 years of prepaid payment, unprecedented in the electronics industry, with the seller’s market at an all-time high. Internal estimates from foundries suggest shortages will persist until 2030, or even potentially for a decade with no end in sight.”
That is a dramatic shift in how memory supply works. Typically, companies negotiate yearly contracts. Now, sellers want multi year upfront payments. It signals tight supply and strong bargaining power.
Pua added that “From year-end to 2026, many system companies will shut down or exit product lines due to inability to secure memory. In the second half of 2026, large numbers of low-margin brands will exit, low-end products will disappear, creating a market vacuum until supply recovers and growth explodes again.”
AI demand is reshaping the memory market
According to QQ_Timmy’s observations, AI is a hard structural demand. Data center inference servers are expected to multiply. If Nvidia’s Vera Rubin ships in large volumes, each unit paired with over 20TB SSD, it could consume roughly 20 percent of global NAND capacity from last year.
Phison says NAND and DRAM demand will reach an all time high this year and stay elevated through the decade. Server lead times are already eight months. Even Phison’s internal expansion faced a DRAM fulfillment rate below 30 percent.
This demand shift could hurt consumer segments. Smartphone production may drop by 200 to 250 million units, with PC and TV output also cut. Memory costs have surged sharply, making low margin products harder to sustain.
Consumer electronics face tough years
Memory accounts for over 20 percent of a smartphone bill of materials, compared to 5 to 6 percent for servers. Data center operators can pay higher prices. Entry level device makers struggle.
Phison is positioning itself differently. The company is working on a minimal DRAM plus specialized Flash solution to reduce dependence on large DRAM capacities in AI PCs. It aims to showcase more at CES 2026.