AIMIM-RJD’s fight on Muslim-Yadav vote bank in Seemanchal. AIMIM spoiled the RJD’s equation winning 5 seats in 2020. The 24 -seat Seemanchal will affect Bihar election.
Patna: A new chapter has started in Seemanchal’s politics where there has been a war between Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD over the Muslim-Yadav vote bank. In 2020, AIMIM won five seats by making a big dent in the RJD’s traditional ‘My’ (Muslim-Yadav) equation, which caused a stir in the politics of the region. In the upcoming assembly elections, both parties are ready to save their credibility and this Dangal can have a profound impact on the overall politics of Bihar in the 24-seat Seemanchal.
This is a fight for existence for the Rashtriya Janata Dal as Seemanchal was considered their traditional stronghold. The Muslim community has been a strong pillar in Lalu Prasad’s social justice politics, but this equation has deteriorated due to the arrival of AIMIM. Owaisi’s party claims that they are the real representative of the Muslim community and is ignoring Muslim interests in the name of secularism.
The four districts of Seemanchal – Araria, Kishanganj, Katihar and Purnia have about 40–45% Muslim population, which plays a decisive role in the politics of the region. This ‘My’ equation in collaboration with the 12-15% population of the Yadav community has been the basis of RJD’s strength in the region for decades. As of 2015, the RJD used to win about 18-20 seats in Seemanchal on the basis of this formula, but in 2020 the number decreased to 8.
There were many factors behind AIMIM’s success of 2020. Increasing identity politics among Muslim youth, focus on local issues and growing disappointment from RJD benefited Owaisi’s party. AIMIM’s victory on seats like Amour, Baisi, Jokihat, Karghar and Bari proved that Muslim voters are now looking for an alternative.
The biggest problem for RJD is that its core vote bank is divided. The RJD leadership has had to change its strategy due to the increasing influence of AIMIM in the Muslim community. Tejashwi Yadav has spent more time in Seemanchal this time and local Muslim leaders are being given more importance. RJD argues that AIMIM is doing communal politics while he is an advocate of secular politics.
Owaisi’s strategy is completely different. They directly do politics of Muslim identity and say that Muslim interests are being ignored in the name of secularism. AIMIM claims that even after 70 years of independence, the Muslim community is backward and traditional secular parties use them only for votes. His slogan is ‘Othe votes, Raj will not work’.
The politics of the Yadav community has also changed. Traditionally, there are signs of partition in the Yadav community standing with RJD. Some Yadav leaders are talking about coordination with AIMIM, while RJD’s old guard is opposing it. Tejashwi Yadav has many expectations from the young leadership, but he is yet to be tested in Seemanchal.
If you look at the 2020 election figures, the distribution of Muslim vote is clearly visible. RJD received around 35-40% Muslim vote, while AIMIM received 25-30% Muslim vote. This partition proved fatal to the RJD as he lost several seats without a united Muslim vote. Congress and leftist parties also got a part of the Muslim vote, which also increased competition within the Grand Alliance.
The effect of this riot will not be limited to Seemanchal only. In other parts of Bihar, the Muslim community can see AIMIM as an alternative. This election is a fight for existence for RJD because if their roots are shaken in Seemanchal, then their situation can be weak throughout Bihar. Owaisi is a chance to prove that he can become leaders of Muslim politics at the national level, not only limited to Hyderabad.