Normally, the southwest monsoon reaches Kerala around June 1. Earlier this month, the IMD had forecast that the monsoon could arrive by May 26, allowing a margin of error of four days. However, the latest forecasts suggest that the conditions required for declaring monsoon onset are yet to be fully achieved.
For the official declaration of monsoon onset over Kerala, at least 60 percent of 14 designated weather stations must record rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days. In addition, strong westerly winds and persistent cloudy conditions are also necessary.
Despite the delay concerns, the monsoon has continued advancing over several regions. It has already progressed into parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, sections of the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and parts of northeast India.
The IMD has also stated that conditions remain favourable for further advance into more areas of southern peninsular India and northeastern states during the coming days.