Islamabad/New Delhi: A startling assessment by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has pulled back the curtain on Pakistans shadowy nuclear weapons programme.
The report reveals that Islamabad now possesses an estimated 170 nuclear warheads, a number that has remained unchanged since 2023 but marks a stunning surge from earlier decades.
Back in 1999, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency had predicted Pakistan would hold only 60 to 80 warheads by 2020. But since then, the nuclear stockpile has grown far beyond expectations. It is driven by the reported development of multiple new weapon systems, an escalation that has unfolded largely out of public view.
What makes the revelation more unnerving is the tight veil of secrecy Pakistan maintains over its arsenal. With no official disclosures, experts have relied on satellite images, intelligence leaks and classified sources to piece together the nuclear puzzle. The report paints a portrait of a rapidly evolving nuclear programme that has silently pushed the country to the forefront of global atomic powers.
Rapid Uranium Enrichment
The report further reveals that Pakistan has developed several weapons capable of delivering nuclear warheads. The country operates four plutonium production reactors and is actively expanding its uranium enrichment infrastructure.
Analysts warn that this could lead to a substantial increase in Pakistans nuclear arsenal over the next few years. The actual pace of expansion, however, depends on several factors, including the number of Pakistans nuclear-capable missile launchers, its evolving nuclear strategy and developments in Indias own nuclear capabilities.
India-Pakistan Nuclear Dynamics
The bulletin stresses that Pakistans nuclear programme is closely tied to Indias actions. If New Delhi does not expand its nuclear arsenal or strengthen conventional military capabilities, the report suggests that Islamabads nuclear growth may remain limited and its arsenal could stabilise.
However, the report cautions that all assessments remain uncertain because Pakistan has never officially disclosed the size or specifics of its nuclear stockpile. The Pakistani government traditionally maintains silence on the composition, delivery mechanisms and operational doctrines of its nuclear programme.
Methodology Behind The Estimate
Published in Nuclear Notebook, the report combines multiple sources to estimate Pakistans arsenal. These include government data (official statements, declassified material, budgetary records and military parades), non-governmental sources (media reports, think tank analyses and industrial publications) and satellite imagery (high-resolution images to track facilities and potential weapon storage sites).
Each of these sources provides partial and sometimes conflicting information, making precise quantification of Pakistans nuclear stockpile challenging. Despite these limitations, the bulletin emphasises that the report was prepared after consultations with relevant national and international experts to ensure a credible assessment.
The report highlights a growing strategic concern for India, as Pakistans ongoing enrichment efforts and expansion of delivery-capable weapons could shift regional nuclear balances in the coming years.