New Delhi: India will continue to depend heavily on coal for at least next 25 years even as it expands renewable energy and works towards its net-zero target, according to long-term projections released by government think-tank NITI Aayog.
The reports also suggest that coal consumption could more than double by mid-century under the current policy framework, reflecting the country’s growing energy needs and the limits of clean alternatives at present.
Under a scenario where no major new decarbonisation measures are introduced, India’s coal demand is expected to peak at 2.62 billion metric tonnes in 2050, which will be more than double today’s consumption of around 1.26 billion tonnes.
Even two decades later, coal use is projected to remain high at about 1.80 billion tonnes in 2070, as per the report and that too largely because of industrial demand. The report underlines that sectors such as manufacturing will continue to rely on coal well beyond the power sector.
Net-zero path shows sharp decline later
India has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070. And under this pathway, coal consumption is expected to peak at 1.83 billion tonnes in 2050 before dropping sharply to just 161 million tonnes by 2070.
By then, almost all remaining coal use would be confined to hard-to-abate sectors like steel and cement. These industries would need carbon capture, utilisation and storage technologies to stay aligned with emissions targets.
Coal’s role in energy security
The report also makes it clear that coal will remain critical in the near term to support the grid as solar and wind capacity expand. Coal-fired plants are expected to provide backup power when renewable generation fluctuates.
While many coal plants may operate less frequently in the future but they are likely to be kept ready to manage peak demand and emergency situations.
What India needs to move away to coal
To reduce coal dependence NITI Aayog highlights the need for large-scale battery storage, faster growth in nuclear energy, expanded power grids and lower costs for clean technologies. Until these systems are in place, coal is set to remain a key pillar of India’s energy mix.