According to the report of NITI Aayog, India’s power sector will continue to need coal till the year 2050.Image Credit source: ChatGPT
According to long-term projections published by India’s government think-tank NITI Aayog, India’s coal consumption could more than double by mid-century, after which it could decline rapidly, due to the country’s growing shift towards clean energy. Under the current policy scenario – which assumes no major new measures to reduce carbon emissions – coal demand is expected to peak at 2.62 billion metric tons in 2050, more than double the current level of 1.26 billion metric tons. According to the report, due to industrial demand, coal consumption is expected to remain at a relatively high level of 1.80 billion tonnes till 2070.
How much will be the demand?
India aims to achieve net zero emissions by 2070, and under this scenario, coal consumption is expected to peak at 1.83 billion tonnes in 2050, after which it will decline to just 161 million tonnes by 2070. The report says that almost all remaining use of coal in 2070 will be limited to sectors such as steel and cement where emissions are difficult to reduce and will require carbon capture, use and storage to meet emissions targets.
What kind of warning is there in the report?
India, the world’s second largest coal consumer after China, depends on coal for almost three-fourths of its power generation and has set a target of increasing its coal power generation capacity from the current 212 GW to 307 GW by 2034-35 to meet the forecasted power demand. The report warns that coal will remain essential for the foreseeable future to support growing solar and wind energy capacity and to balance the grid.
What will need to be done?
The report says that to move away from coal, India will need large-scale battery storage, increased nuclear energy, grid expansion and low cost clean tech. The report also said that even if coal power plants continue to operate, many of them will operate less frequently and will be used primarily to meet peak power demand or emergency situations.