The World Bank projects that its precious metals price index will rise by 42% in 2026, but decline by 8% in 2027.
- Over the past year, top precious metals ETFs have delivered far superior returns than the benchmark S&P 500 index.
- The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) surged more than 64% over the last year, and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) advanced nearly 24%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) posted about 22% gains.
- The World Bank expects gold prices to rise by about 37% in 2026 before declining by 9% in 2027, and expects silver prices to increase by 76% in 2026 before falling by about 7% in 2027.
The precious metals trade has quietly outpaced the broader market over the past year, with silver leading the charge and diversified metals funds also delivering stronger returns than the benchmark S&P 500.
While silver and gold have retreated from their highs earlier this year, the lingering U.S.-Iran tensions and continued central bank purchases may continue to underpin demand for safe-haven assets.
Despite the recent pullback, the World Bank projects that its precious metals price index will rise by 42% in 2026, but decline by 8% in 2027.
Precious Metals ETFs Outperform S&P 500
Over the past year, the top precious metals exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have delivered far superior returns than the benchmark S&P 500 index.
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) surged more than 64% over the last year, while the abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF (GLTR), which comprises physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium, has returned about 34% in the same period.
The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which tracks the spot price of gold, has advanced nearly 24%, while the Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund (DBP) gained nearly 29%.
By comparison, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, posted about 22% gains.
Outlook Is Shiny For Precious Metals Despite Recent Declines
However, precious metal prices declined in the second quarter of 2026. As per the World Bank, by June, gold was about 15% below its February peak, while silver and platinum were about 25% below their January record highs.
However, the apex bank still believes the metals have room to run through the end of the year. “Gold is expected to remain supported by safe-haven demand and continued central bank purchases. Silver and platinum prices should remain firm, underpinned by industrial demand and constrained supply,” the World Bank said in late June.
“Risks are tilted to the upside, particularly from renewed geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and financial market volatility,” it added.
The outlook is underpinned by renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Conflict increased after Iran attacked three commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week, following which the U.S. initiated strikes against the Middle Eastern country and revoked a previous license that had lifted sanctions on Iran’s oil.
Meanwhile, Trump told reporters on Thursday that he is unsure whether the U.S. and Iran are heading back into a full-scale war, after he mentioned previously that the U.S. may not be interested in negotiating a deal with Iran any longer. The president had also said that the ceasefire between the two countries was “over.”
Meanwhile, central bank buying of gold is also expected to continue, bolstering prices.
Precious Metals Targets
The World Bank expects gold prices to rise by about 37% in 2026 before declining by 9% in 2027. Meanwhile, it expects silver prices to increase by 76% in 2026, then fall by about 7% in 2027, and platinum prices to average about 53% higher in 2026 before declining by about 13% in 2027.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan reportedly expects demand for gold from key sectors to be more muted than expected. According to a recent Reuters report, the bank sees gold prices at $4,500 per ounce by the fourth quarter, an increase of about 9% from the current level of $4,123.01.
The bank maintained its positive long-term outlook for gold, saying the metal could climb further in 2027 as central bank buying and physical demand remain supported by structural accumulation trends.
For silver, it expects prices to average between $60 and $65 per ounce over the forecast period, driven by a normalization in the gold-to-silver ratio and easing concerns around the tight physical market conditions seen last year.
Platinum is projected to reach an average of about $1,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 and rise to roughly $1,950 by the end of 2027, while palladium is projected to trade around $1,350 per ounce by the end of 2026 before averaging close to $1,300 in 2027.
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