Economic Survey 2025-26
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the country’s economic survey in Parliament today ahead of the Union Budget to be presented on 1 February 2026. According to this survey, the country’s GDP growth is estimated to be between 6.8 to 7.2 percent in the financial year 2026-27. However, this is slightly less than the estimated rate of 7.4 percent for the current financial year. The Economic Survey is presented every year before the Budget and prepares the basis for the policies of the next financial year. Along with this, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also gave information about the trade deal with America in the Economic Survey.
When will the India-America trade deal happen?
According to the Economic Survey 2025-26, the ongoing trade agreement negotiations between India and America are expected to be completed this year. This can reduce the uncertainty on the external front. The survey said that currently the global situation is creating more external uncertainty for India than any immediate major economic crisis. Slow economic growth, tariff barriers and fluctuations in capital flows in key trading partner countries may at times impact India’s exports and investor confidence.
Meanwhile, the ongoing trade talks with America are expected to be completed this year, which may reduce uncertainty on the external front, the survey said. India and America have been negotiating a bilateral trade agreement since March last year. So far six rounds of talks have taken place. However, this process slowed down after the US administration imposed heavy tariffs on Indian products from August.
America has imposed 50% tariff
America had imposed 25% tariff on Indian goods and an additional penalty of 25% on top of that. The reason for this was said to be India buying crude oil from Russia. In December 2025, a delegation from the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), led by Deputy Trade Representative Ambassador Rick Switzer, visited India for trade talks. This was the second visit of US officials to India after the imposition of tariffs.
How will be the GDP growth?
According to the Economic Survey, India’s real GDP growth is expected to be between 6.8% to 7.2% by FY 2027. This estimate has been made on the basis that domestic demand will remain strong and the country’s economy will remain stable despite global uncertainties. The survey also said that India is moving forward with a strong economic foundation in the coming years. Given the current situation, India is expected to have real growth of more than 7% for the full year. Not only this, the growth rate in the next financial year is also expected to be at or around 7%.
estimates of global institutions
Estimates from international agencies differ to some extent. Goldman Sachs Group believes that despite the prospects of the US-India trade agreement, India’s growth rate may decline to 6.8% in the next financial year. On the other hand, the United Nations (UN) says that strong demand coming from big markets like Europe and West Asia can balance the impact of tariffs to a great extent. The UN also believes that the finalization of the trade agreement between India and the European Union (EU) is a sign that the global economic scenario is changing and India is playing an important role in it.