The Research Department of State Bank of India (SBI) has claimed in its latest report that India is going to become an upper middle income country by the year 2030. Also, it can emerge as the world’s third largest economy by 2028. According to SBI Research Report (Issue #35, FY26), the continuous rapid growth in India’s Per Capita Gross National Income (GNI) and nominal GDP is the basis for this change.
Timeline of change in income group
According to the report, there has been a big change in the income structure of India. India became a lower middle income country from low income in 2007. The per capita income here has reached approximately $1,000 in 2009. In 2019 it was around $2,000. SBI estimates that per capita income will be $3,000 by 2026. It may reach around $4,000 by 2030. According to the current classification system of the World Bank, this level will take India into the upper middle income category.
What does upper middle income country mean?
The World Bank classifies countries on the basis of per capita gross national income (GNI).
According to the World Bank range of 2024:
• Lower middle income: $1,136 $4,495
Upper middle income: $4,496 $13,935
•High Income: More than $13,936
According to SBI:
•India will reach about $4,000-$4,500 per capita GNI by 2030
This level will take India into the Upper Middle-Income category.
How far has India reached till now?
Historical journey (SBI data):
•1962: India’s per capita income around $90
•2007: India becomes lower middle income country ($910 per capita income)
•2019: $2,000 per capita income
•2026 (estimate): $3,000
•2030 (estimate): $4,000$4,500 → Upper Middle-Income
This change shows that India’s income growth has now become fast and structural.
India’s position in global growth
According to SBI Research, India’s average economic growth rate in the last decade has taken it among the top countries in the global growth distribution. India is now included in the group of fastest growing emerging countries in the world. Very few countries have grown faster than India in the last 10 years.
Third largest economy in 2028
The report says that on the basis of nominal GDP, India was at 14th place in 1990. By 2025, India has reached the fourth position and by 2028, India can reach the third position, leaving Germany behind.
expansion in economic size
According to SBI estimates, India can become a $5 trillion economy by FY28 and touch the $10 trillion level by FY36. The long term goal is to become a high income country. The report also says that if current trends continue, India can move towards becoming a high income country by 2047. For this, it will be necessary to maintain a strong growth in per capita income. SBI Research estimates that India is almost certain to become an upper middle income country, while its position in the global economic ranking may become stronger in the coming years.