While President Trump did not explicitly announce his decision, he indicated he would prefer to keep White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett in his current position.
- On Kalshi, 61% of the total bets were on Warsh to be nominated as Fed Chair, while bets on Hassett were at 17% at the time of writing.
- Meanwhile, on Polymarket, 59% of the total bets favored Warsh as the next nominee, while bets on Hassett were at 16%.
- Trump has indicated earlier that he has made up his mind on the decision of the next Fed Chair and would make an announcement this month.
Prediction markets are switching up their bets on who the next Chair of the Federal Reserve is likely to be. Odds of ex-Fed official Kevin Warsh soared ahead of White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett after President Donald Trump’s remarks on Friday.
While Trump did not explicitly announce his decision, the statement indicates he would prefer to keep Hassett as the country’s top economic advisor.
“I see Kevin’s in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today,” Trump said at the White House. “I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth.”
Prediction Market Bets
On Kalshi, 61% of the total bets were on Warsh to be nominated as Fed Chair, while bets on Hassett were at 17% at the time of writing. Meanwhile, on Polymarket, 59% of the total bets favored Warsh as the next nominee, while bets on Hassett were at 16%.
Data from both prediction markets clock bets on the next Fed Chair pick at over $230 million at the time of writing. Kalshi volume bets are worth over $35.5 million, and Polymarket clocked bets worth over $194.7 million.
The Fed Chair Race
Trump has indicated that he has made up his mind and will announce the next Fed Chair this month as current Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, while his term as a Fed governor ends in 2028.
Aside from Warsh and Hassett, President Trump’s potential picks for the Fed Chair position include current central bank governor Christopher Waller, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock Inc.’s Rick Rieder.
Meanwhile, Powell is under criminal investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice over a renovation of the Fed’s Eccles Building. Hassett had earlier expressed his opinion that the Fed should remain independent in light of the probe. “When the Fed loses its independence, inflation goes out of control and it hurts ordinary folks, we can’t ever let that happen,” he said in an interview on Fox Business.
On the markets’ side, U.S. equities traded in green on Friday. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, rose 0.12%, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) edged up 0.12%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) gained 0.03%. Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bullish’ territory.
The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) was down by 0.18% at the time of writing.
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