US actions in Venezuela are impacting global oil markets, but India remains largely unaffected. This is because prior US sanctions have already caused India’s crude oil imports from the nation to collapse, significantly reducing its dependency.
When news broke that US President Donald Trump had ordered airstrikes in Venezuela and detained President Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism charges, global oil markets immediately went on edge. After all, Venezuela sits on the world’s largest proven crude reserves.
But for India, the shock is more about headlines than hard impact.
Why India Isn’t Feeling the Heat
According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India’s business with Venezuela has already shrunk to a trickle because of long-running US sanctions.
“India faces negligible impact, as trade with Venezuela has collapsed under sanctions, with crude imports down 81.3 per cent in FY2025,” GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava told PTI.
In simple terms, India no longer depends on Venezuelan oil the way it once did, so sudden turmoil there doesn’t hit us as hard.
From Big Buyer to Bit Player
There was a time when India was importing over 4 lakh barrels of Venezuelan crude every day. That changed after sanctions were imposed in 2019, forcing Indian refiners to pull back to avoid secondary penalties.
In FY2025, India’s total imports from Venezuela were just $364.5 million, with crude oil making up $255.3 million, an 81 per cent fall from the previous year. Exports from India were also modest, at $95.3 million, largely pharmaceuticals.
Venezuela Still Matters to the World
Even if India is insulated, the global market isn’t. Venezuela controls around 18 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia or Russia.
Any attempt to revive its oil industry could add fresh supply to an already crowded global market, potentially pushing prices lower. But analysts warn that years of neglect and sanctions mean a quick recovery is unlikely.
A Hidden Opportunity for India
Ironically, the crisis could eventually help Indian interests.
ONGC Videsh Ltd owns 40 per cent of the San Cristobal oilfield in Venezuela, where production has collapsed to just 5,000–10,000 barrels a day. Sanctions blocked equipment, technology and even dividend payments, over $536 million is still pending.
If restrictions are eased, ONGC could move its rigs from Gujarat and bring new wells online. Officials say the field has the potential to produce up to 1 lakh barrels per day.