China has congratulated India on surpassing Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, highlighting the significance of resilience, learning from history, and preparing for the future.
Yu Jing, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in India, said, ‘Delighted to know that India is poised to surpass Japan to become the world’s 4th largest economy. India’s rise shows that true strength comes from facing history honestly, learning from it, and taking responsibility for the future.’
India Becomes Fourth-Largest Economy
The Indian government announced on December 30 that the country’s economy has reached USD 4.18 trillion, overtaking Japan. India is now positioned to challenge Germany for the third spot by 2030, with projections indicating a GDP of USD 7.3 trillion within the next 2.5-3 years.
India’s real GDP growth has been robust, with the economy expanding 8.2% in the second quarter of 2025-26, up from 7.8% in the previous quarter and 7.4% in Q4 of the last fiscal year. Strong domestic consumption and other internal drivers have been central to sustaining this growth, even amid global trade uncertainties.
Fastest-Growing Major Economy
India continues to hold the distinction of being the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Multiple international agencies have projected continued strong growth:
- World Bank: 6.5% in 2026
- Moody’s: 6.4% in 2026, 6.5% in 2027
- IMF: 6.6% in 2025, 6.2% in 2026
- OECD: 6.7% in 2025, 6.2% in 2026
- S&P: 6.5% in 2025-26, 6.7% next year
- ADB: 7.2% in 2025
- Fitch: 7.4% in FY26
These projections underline optimism about India’s continued expansion and its ability to sustain high growth rates.
Building on Strong Foundations
The government emphasised that India’s economic ascent is supported by structural reforms, robust social progress, and policies aimed at long-term stability. Officials noted that India is targeting high middle-income status by 2047, the centenary of its independence, leveraging strong domestic demand and reform-driven growth to achieve this goal.
With the US remaining the largest economy, followed by China and Germany, India’s entry into the top four marks a historic milestone. Analysts say the country’s growth trajectory positions it as a key player in the global economy over the coming decade, reflecting both resilience and forward-looking economic strategy.