S&P 500, Dow Futures Slip As Rate-Cut Euphoria Fades: Why This Strategist Says Buying At ‘All-Time’ Highs Isn’t Risky

Last week, the S&P 500 Index, a measure of broader market performance, slipped for five straight sessions before rebounding sharply on Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a possible interest rate cut.

U.S. stock futures slipped early Monday after the euphoria generated by the prospect of a central bank rate cut faded, and the market looked ahead to the next major catalysts, including a key metric considered the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge.

As of 12:45 a.m. ET on Monday, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow futures all fell about 0.15% and the Russell 2000 Index is down a more modest 0.09%.

Last week, the S&P 500 Index, a measure of broader market performance, slipped for five straight sessions before rebounding sharply on Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a possible interest rate cut. 

Acknowledging that the softening of the labor market and the inflation staying stubbornly high above the Fed’s target calls for careful treading, Powell said, “Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

For the week ended Aug. 22, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500 Index, gained 0.29%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained 1.58% and 3.39%, respectively.

The tech sell-off dragged the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) into a weekly loss, with the tech-focused ETF slipping 0.93% for the week.

The week’s key economic data is back-end loaded, with the weekly jobless claims data, the preliminary second-quarter GDP data and the personal consumption expenditure index, which is released as part of the July personal income and spending report, all due on Thursday and Friday.

Traders may also keep an eye on several key indicators, including the Fed speeches, the advanced goods trade balance data, the Chicago region business barometer for August, two consumer confidence readings, and the July durable goods orders data.

On Monday, the Commerce Department is due to release its new home sales report for July at 10 a.m. ET. Economists, on average, expect new home sales to rise slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000 from a 627,000 pace in June.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan is scheduled to speak at 3:15 a.m. ET.  New York Fed President John Williams will speak at 7:15 p.m. ET.

Chinese retailer PDD Holdings (PDD) and Semtech (SMTC) are due to release their quarterly results on Monday.

A strategist allayed fears of investing at “all-time” highs, even as the market holds on to its strong upward momentum and the S&P 500 Index trades just below its all-time high.

“History says you shouldn’t be,” said Creative Planning Chief Market Strategist Charlie Bilello in a X post. Sharing data, he said that since 1989, the forward returns after new highs have actually been better than at other times.

Crude oil futures added to their gains amid reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia, while gold futures slipped but held above the $3,400 mark.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield edged up after plunging 7 basis points to 4.26% on Friday following Powell’s speech.

The U.S. dollar has recovered from Friday’s drop.

The Asian markets advanced strongly on Monday morning, led by the Taiwanese and Hong Kong markets, encouraged by hopes of a U.S. rate cut.

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