It is a simplification to say that whoever is in power in the state, wins in that state. But then the question arises that why BJP did not get that success in the Lok Sabha elections? The results of the general elections of Maharashtra Assembly and the by-elections held on 9 seats of Uttar Pradesh Assembly are telling a different story. These are the states where BJP had to face defeat in the parliamentary elections held just six months ago. But BJP hoisted its flag in the assembly elections. This will have to be analyzed to get the correct answer.
In fact. Congress and its alliance had achieved considerable success in the Lok Sabha elections. So much so that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had to bow down and talk to his allies even though it is not in his nature. The Modi government of 2014 and 2019 was different from the Modi government of 2024.
Analysis of defeat of every seat
One reason for this was that the BJP was upset over its defeat. There was a discussion on which issues the BJP lagged behind. Congress itself made this task easier for them. In the excitement of victory, Congress itself revealed its strategy. Congress National President Rahul Gandhi took a copy of the Constitution and started telling that we had cornered the BJP on the issue of changing the Constitution. Dalit-backward voters were scared that if BJP did this, their reservation would end. On top of that, Congress’ biggest ally Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party insisted on organizing the PDA. PDA means Backward, Dalit and Minority. This magic worked and BJP got stuck on 240 seats in the Lok Sabha. To get the figure of 272, it has to keep its allies simple. Thankfully, no ally of BJP has shown any reaction yet and coordination is going well.
BJP caught the nerves of voters
BJP got a chance to correct these mistakes because it did not get any benefit from free ration or farmers welfare fund and Ram temple. Even BJP had to lose Ayodhya seat, hence it raised ground issues instead of aerial issues and it was successful. However, in the meantime he had won the Haryana Assembly elections. But there was only Congress in front and Congress leaders lost their chances of victory by fighting among themselves. At that time, leaving aside the exit poll surveys, everyone understood that the arrogance of the Hooda family would sink the Congress. On the contrary, in Maharashtra there was a coalition whose leaders had a strong presence on the ground. Congress itself was relatively weak there. Sharad Pawar, who had not lost an election since 1967, Uddhav Thackeray who succeeded Bal Thackeray. Despite this he could not stop the BJP alliance.
Even BJP could not have imagined such a victory.
This time BJP moved very cautiously. The issue of changing the Constitution was easily forgotten and backward classes were given importance. Vinod Tawde from BJP was there as Maratha Satrap and so was alliance partner Ajit Pawar. Eknath Shinde got support among the backward people. Apart from this, Pankaja Munde is already present in BJP. To prevent the Hindu community from getting divided on the basis of caste, the slogan ‘If we are one then we are safe’ was raised widely. Also, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s ‘Ladki Behna Yojana’ has shown wonders. This magic worked and something happened in Maharashtra which the BJP itself had not expected. BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis had accepted the post of Deputy CM two and a half years ago, following the party’s discipline. Whereas between 2014 and 2019, he himself was the Chief Minister of Maharashtra. Interestingly, Eknath Shinde, who came after breaking Shiv Sena, had less MLAs than BJP.
Sharad Dada’s first defeat
This coordination worked. BJP got 132 seats there. After that, Eknath Shinde’s party Shiv Sena (Shinde) got 57 seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP got 40 seats. In this way the NDA alliance (Mahayuti) got a total of 230 seats. In contrast, Congress alliance Maha Vikas Aghadi could get only 46 seats. 13 independents have also won in the 288-seat Maharashtra Assembly. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena got 20 seats, Congress 16 and Sharad Pawar’s NCP got 10 seats. Sharad Pawar is the biggest laggard in this race, while during the election campaign in his traditional seat Baramati, he had said that this is his last election campaign. Now he will not campaign for anyone. It was very important for Sharad Pawar to make his candidate win in Baramati. There his second brother’s grandson was fighting from his group and nephew Ajit Pawar was fighting from his group.
The magic of ‘If there is one then we are safe’ has worked.
Some schemes of the BJP coalition government appealed to the people. Chief among these was the Girl Sister Scheme. The scheme of transferring Rs 1500 per month into the accounts of women from poor families changed the entire atmosphere. The enthusiasm among women at the time of voting was worth seeing. Also got the benefit of the Central Government’s Senior Citizen Health Scheme. Free electricity for farmers, internship scheme for youth etc. Apart from this, efforts to unite Hindus also bore fruit. Slogan was given here on the lines of Uttar Pradesh, if one is safe, it is safe. Yogi Adityanath had given the slogan in Uttar Pradesh, ‘If you divide, you will be divided’. Prime Minister Narendra Modi amended it and a new slogan came, ‘Ek hain toh safe hain’. The wording of the earlier slogan directly targeted a community. This would have given Congress the convenience of saying that BJP only brings communal issues to the elections.
Maratha power no longer has the strength
Many such steps were a boon for BJP. Along with this, Maratha power was also exposed. From the first general election till today, Congress has not been able to come out of the Maratha group. But this time BJP broke it. BJP was looking at the strength of Maratha lobby by putting Ajit Pawar forward in the Lok Sabha elections. There was no benefit but this time he trusted the OBC castes and got a bumper victory. The contribution of strategist Devendra Fadnavis behind this miracle of BJP was amazing. He had said, “I am a modern Abhimanyu, I know how to penetrate the Chakravyuh!” He was successful in his campaign. Now the real issue is the selection of the Chief Minister. Naturally the contender for this post is Devendra Fadnavis. He has done wonders by making BJP the number one party in the state. Apart from this, following the orders of the party high command, he held the junior post (post of Deputy Chief Minister) for two and a half years, which was contrary to his stature. In such a situation his claim is strong.
Hemant Soren stopped the chariot of BJP
BJP performed brilliantly in Uttar Pradesh. There were elections for 9 assembly seats. In this BJP won 7 seats. Even Kundarki, a Muslim dominated seat. SP had to be content with only two seats whereas it was on top in the Lok Sabha elections held six months ago. But Hemant Soren stopped the chariot of BJP. He got India Alliance 56 seats in Jharkhand. He has got 35 seats alone. Congress got 16 and RJD got four. He contested the elections here on the strength of himself and his wife Kalpana. He stopped the victorious chariot of BJP. He blunted all the attacks of BJP. Hemant Soren raised grassroots issues while BJP traditionally raised the issue of infiltrators there. This determination of Hemant single-handedly makes him a hero.
