An alert has been issued for less rainfall in July. Photo: PTI
The month of July has started. Meteorologists have issued an alert of very less rainfall in this month. Almost the entire month of June was spent waiting for the monsoon. In such a situation, the fear of drought has started troubling. If there is no rain, not only crop production but many things will be affected. Inflation will also increase rapidly. Grains may have to be imported. Nature is showing its form to the whole world in some form or the other. The countries of Europe which are said to be cold are heating up. The entire India, which was drenched in rain, went through drought in the month of June.
Monsoon arrives in India every year around the month of June. Sometimes it knocks at the end of May itself. The air comes towards India carrying moisture from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. This air flows from the hot land towards the cold sea air. It is through this process that rain occurs. The speed and path of monsoon winds decide where and how much rain will occur in the country.
Why was June dry this year?
Many factors together are making June dry. The biggest reason is the change in sea temperature. If the sea surface temperature is above or below normal then the monsoon is affected. The second reason is the weakness of air velocity. There was no strength in the monsoon winds. It could not give birth to clouds that bring rain. The effect of jet streams and high pressure is also a big reason. Changes in the upper atmosphere change weather patterns. Along with all this, local conditions, such as soil moisture and temperature, also contribute to low rainfall.
In June this year, the entire country received 99.5 mm rainfall, whereas in normal conditions it would have been 165 mm rainfall. This year has been the fifth driest June in the last 125 years. It is not difficult to imagine the horror of this.
This year has been the fifth driest June in the last 125 years. Photo: PTI
Why is an alert being given for less rainfall in July?
Meteorologists are warning of less rainfall for July. It is estimated that the long term average of rainfall in July is going to be much less. The reason behind this could be the effect of temperature imbalance in the sea, global pattern El Nino etc. The south-eastern direction of monsoon looks weak. All these together are indicating less rainfall in the coming months. The month of July is very important for many crops including paddy, maize, cotton, soybean, pigeon pea. Because they need more water and this need is fulfilled by rain. The Indian Meteorological Department says that there may be good rain in many parts of the country in the next few days. Where it rains, it will be fine, but where it does not rain, the crops there will remain thirsty.
The weather department says there will be less rainfall in July. Photo: PTI
What do El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole do?
The World Meteorological Organization and other agencies have already issued warnings about the activation of El Nino. This is a phenomenon of increasing temperature in the Pacific Ocean. It has been affecting the weather all over the world. Active El Nino means excessive rain and drought. The impact of its arrival has been seen on a large scale earlier also. IOD is the influence of the Indian Ocean. Positive IOD creates cold water in the Bay of Bengal and warm water in the Arabian Sea. This can also affect the monsoon. Both the events can collectively lead to reduction in rainfall.
The World Meteorological Organization has already warned of El Nino becoming active. Photo: PTI
Why did the monsoon deteriorate?
- Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and short-term variations: There is a wave like pattern. It passes through tropical areas. Rainfall increases in its active phase. Drought comes in cool phase. If MJO remains weak or calm in July, rainfall will be less. Meteorologists are keeping an eye on the movement of MJO.
- Sea surface temperature and monsoon: Sea surface temperature is like the fuel for rain. The warm ocean provides more steam and moisture. But if the water remains cooler than normal in some parts, then less clouds are formed. Sea surface temperatures were abnormal in some sea areas this year. This is also an important reason for less rainfall.
- Role of atmospheric block and Western Ghats: Sometimes high pressure areas remain in one place for a long time. This is called atmospheric block. This can divert monsoon tracks. Western disturbances and snow in the Himalayan regions also affect the monsoon. If the coordination between all these gets disturbed, the rainfall may be less or the air may be more.
- Long term impact of climate change: The weather is becoming difficult due to global warming. The cycles have now become unstable. Sometimes there is excess rainfall and sometimes drought. Due to increasing heat, the energy of the ocean and atmosphere changes. This affects the timing and intensity of monsoon. Changing conditions in the long term increase uncertainty in monsoon patterns.
What will be the impact on agriculture and water resources?
Less rain will have a direct impact on the crop. Sowing and growth in Kharif crops may be affected. Small farmers will be most affected. Drinking water and irrigation will also be affected due to water shortage. The water level of rivers and lakes may decrease. This will cause problems to both cities and villages.
What can the government and administration do?
Governments can issue alerts. Can manage water reserves and dams. Public awareness campaigns can be run. Crop insurance and relief packages can be arranged in advance. It would be better to give priority to irrigation projects in such difficult times. Consideration will have to be given to providing technical assistance and seeds to small farmers.
There are many reasons for the weakness of monsoon. These include ocean temperatures, global patterns, atmospheric blocks, and climate change. Drought in June and alert of less rainfall in July could be the result of these reasons. Their effects can be serious. But the damage can be reduced with preparation. Simple water saving and agricultural measures will be immediately useful.
Also read: Bridge collapsed, trains stopped, 45 thousand homeless… Why does Assam drown every year?
