Tejashwi Yadav is considered to be the biggest test in the by-elections being held on 4 assembly seats in Bihar. There are two reasons for this. The first reason is that out of the 4 vacant seats, 2 belong to RJD. The second reason is that this by-election is being held just a year before the assembly elections to be held in the state.
This by-election for 4 seats being held in Bihar is also being considered as the semi-final of 2025. Elections are proposed for 243 assembly seats of Bihar in October 2025.
By-elections on 4 seats, 2 of them are Tejashwi’s seat
In Bihar, by-elections are being held in Belaganj and Imamganj of Gaya, Tarari of Bhojpur and Ramgarh seat of Kaimur. RJD had won Belaganj and Ramgarh seats in 2020. Sudhakar Singh, son of state president Jagdanand Singh, had won from Ramgarh seat.
Similarly, Surendra Yadav had won in Belaganj. Both Sudhakar and Surendra are considered strong leaders of RJD. Whereas Tarari seat came in the account of Male. Jitan Ram Manjhi had won Imamganj. RJD is contesting on 3 out of these 4 seats. One seat has been given to Tarari Male.
Tejashwi stuck in the maze of by-elections?
In all the by-elections held since 2020, Tejashwi’s party has not been a hit. According to the Election Commission, by-elections were held on 5 seats in Bihar in the last 4 years. These include the seats of Kusheshwarsthan, Tarapur, Bochahan, Kudhani and Rupauli.
Barring Bochahan, RJD lost badly on the remaining 4 seats. Kudhni was RJD’s seat, Tejashwi could not win that too. Similarly, RJD candidate reached third position in Rupauli. On one hand, RJD’s track record regarding by-elections is bad, while on the other hand, RJD is under strong siege this time.
NDA alliance is preparing to wrest seats from RJD. Prashant Kishore’s party has also entered the fray. PK wants to turn the by-election into the third axis like Rupauli.
In Rupauli, people left JDU and RJD and garlanded the independent candidate with Vijayashree garland. If this happens in the by-elections of 4 seats, it will be a direct blow to RJD.
Victory is necessary, otherwise the game of 2025 will be spoiled
This victory is necessary for Tejashwi Yadav, who is stuck in the by-election maze. Otherwise his game may get spoiled in the by-elections. How, let us understand it in 3 points…
1. RJD has fielded Yadav on Belaganj seat. Yadav has also been given ticket by JDU. Jan Suraj has spoiled the game by fielding a Muslim candidate. If Muslims disperse in Belaganj then RJD’s problems may increase in 2025.
In Bihar, Muslims are considered the core voters of RJD, but PK wants to woo Muslims by raising the issue of share. The population of Muslims in Bihar is 17 percent and they are politically influential in many districts of Seemanchal-Mithilachal.
2. The reputation of Jagdanand Singh in Ramgarh and Surendra Yadav in Belaganj is at stake. Both are considered big leaders. If there is a game on these seats then there will be political fear among the big leaders of RJD before 2025.
In the last 6 months, big leaders like Rajvallabh Yadav, Gulab Yadav, Devendra Yadav have left the party.
3. If Jan Suraj gets decent votes on these 4 seats, then she will present herself as a big option before the assembly elections. This will prove to be a loss for Tejashwi only. Currently, Tejashwi is the biggest leader of the opposition with 4 parties.
On the other hand, NDA will also make RJD’s performance an issue.
