The season of ‘Khela Hove’ never ends in Bihar politics. Every two-three months this discussion again becomes intense that some major upheaval is about to take place in the corridors of power.
Often statements of big leaders come out that they have so many MLAs of BJP, JDU or RJD in their contact. Many times such things prove to be mere rumours, but on some occasions during floor tests these claims have also turned out to be true. In this series, this time many speculations are being made in political circles regarding the statement “18 MLAs are in contact with me”.
The biggest question arising is whether JDU is working on a strategy to form the government by ousting BJP? After the statement of JDU’s senior spokesperson Neeraj Kumar, the discussion on this possibility has intensified. The figure of 123 MLAs is necessary to form the government in Bihar Assembly. JDU has 85 MLAs and if 18 MLAs come in contact with them then the number becomes 103. After this, if 19 MLAs of LJP (Ram Vilas) and 5 MLAs of AIMIM support then the total number can reach 126 and the government can be formed.
History of party defection in Bihar is not new
Another formula is also under discussion. According to Neeraj Kumar, apart from 85 MLAs of JDU and 18 supporting MLAs, if 5 MLAs of AIMIM, 6 of Congress, 4 of RLMO, 1 of BSP, 1 of IIP, 3 of Left parties and 5 of HAM are found, then the total number can reach 125. In such a situation, the mathematics of power can also be completed. The history of defection in Bihar is not new. During the floor test during the previous government, some RJD MLAs were seen joining the NDA side, while some MLAs from the ruling party were also seen with the opposition. Interestingly, despite the number being less than one-third, no concrete action was taken under the anti-defection law. Its decision depends on the discretion of the Assembly Speaker. However, the big question is why would JDU take such a step? In the current government, Chief Minister is Nitish Kumar and JDU’s participation is also strong.
If BJP is ousted and the government is formed, the face will remain the same, but JDU’s share may increase in the cabinet and it may also get the post of Assembly Speaker. Despite this, considering the political bonding seen between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar, the chances of trying for a BJP-free government appear weak at the moment. An important difference this time is that the post of Assembly Speaker is with BJP and Dr. Prem Kumar is on this post. Earlier, in situations where manipulation of MLAs was successful, the Speaker was from JDU or an ally. In such a situation, the path to any major political experiment does not seem easy in the current circumstances.