The agency sees the debt-to-GDP ratio rising by an extra two percentage points as the high cost of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is partially offset by new tariffs and other reforms over the first five years.
Washington-based budgetary policy think tank — Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) — on Wednesday updated its baseline forecasts for the next decade, estimating the total deficit to be $1 trillion higher than the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) estimates issued in January.
President Donald Trump took office in late January and has since then unveiled a slew of measures, policies, and rules that are expected to have broader ramifications for the U.S. economy.
The financial market, however, has reacted positively to the Trump regime. The S&P 500 Index, a measure of broader market performance, rose to a record last week but has eased from its highs since then.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 Index, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are up 11.65% and 9.89%, respectively, for the year.
On Stocktwits, sentiment toward the QQQ ETF turned ‘extremely bearish’ (24/100) by late Tuesday from ‘bearish’ a day ago. The message volume on the stream has remained ‘normal.’ The SPY ETF, meanwhile, elicited ‘bearish’ sentiment (34/100), accompanied by ‘low’ message volume.
CRFB said it expects deficits to total $22.7 trillion over a decade, rising to $2.6 trillion or 5.9% of the GDP in 2035 from $1.7 trillion or 5.6% of the GDP in 2025.
The organization sees the debt-to-GDP ratio rising by an extra two percentage points as the high cost of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is partially offset by new tariffs and other reforms over the first five years and mostly offset in the next five.
Its thinking aligns with rating agency S&P’s deduction, as it reaffirmed its U.S. sovereign ratings on Monday. The agency said it expects the “broader revenue buoyancy, including robust tariff income,” to offset any fiscal slippage from tax cuts and spending increases.
CRFB estimates net interest payments on the national debt to be $14 trillion over the next decade, rising to $1.8 trillion in 2035 from about $1 trillion in 2025.
The non-profit and non-partisan organization now estimates the debt held by the public to rise to 120% of GDP or $53 trillion by 2035 from 100% of the GDP or $30 trillion currently.
Meanwhile, the CBO said on Monday that it will not issue its customary mid-year budget update this year.
The U.S. debt topped $37 trillion for the first time last week.
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<