Newcastle United’s manager, Eddie Howe, aims to maintain momentum with minimal changes as they prepare for the Tyne/Wear derby against Sunderland on Sunday.
This marks their first Premier League encounter since 2016, with only a point separating them in the standings. Newcastle sits in 12th place and remains unbeaten in four league matches, despite a recent 2-2 draw with Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League.
Howe is considering fielding the same starting lineup despite injuries. “I think the same team can go again,” he stated after the match. However, he acknowledged that player conditions might influence his decision. “We have a very good squad waiting for their opportunities,” he added, suggesting potential changes could be beneficial.
Sunderland has had an impressive start since returning to the top flight but recently suffered a 3-0 loss to Manchester City, dropping them to ninth place. Their success largely stems from their unbeaten home record at the Stadium of Light. Manager Regis Le Bris highlighted that concerns over suspensions for Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki affected their performance against City.
“It was part of the problem,” Le Bris told Sky Sports. “We played with two midfielders at 60% to 70% intensity.” He emphasized the importance of focusing on the upcoming derby after challenging matches against Bournemouth and Liverpool.
Wilson Isidor has been pivotal for Sunderland, scoring three goals in his first five Premier League appearances. However, his form has dipped with just one goal in his last ten games from 16 shots, generating an expected goals (xG) value of 2.2.
For Newcastle, Anthony Gordon has found form after a long goal drought. He scored in his last two matches from penalties, marking a personal milestone as no Magpies player has scored penalties in three consecutive league games before.
Historical Context and Predictions
Sunderland holds an unbeaten streak of nine league games against Newcastle (W6 D3), including a draw at St James’ Park in March 2016. Newcastle has lost their last three away league games against Sunderland but won their most recent derby clash 3-0 in an FA Cup tie in January 2024.
The Magpies have secured victories in three of their last four Premier League outings (D1), matching their win tally from the previous thirteen games (D3 L7). They ended a nine-game winless away streak with a decisive victory at Everton.
Opta Win Probability
According to Opta’s win probability model:
| Outcome | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| Sunderland Win | 26.6% |
| Draw | 23.7% |
| Newcastle United Win | 49.8% |
Sunderland remains one of two teams unbeaten at home this season alongside Arsenal (W4 D3). They recently overcame Bournemouth by rallying from behind to secure a 3-2 victory.