Jose Mourinho is gearing up for a significant clash as Benfica faces Sporting CP in the Derby de Lisboa. This marks his first encounter with Sporting since a 1-1 draw in January 2004 while managing Porto.
Despite never losing to Sporting in six Primeira Liga matches, Mourinho’s team has faced challenges at Estadio da Luz, winning only two of four home games under his leadership.
Benfica’s manager, Rui Borges, aims to secure a victory against one of their biggest rivals. “A Benfica team that wants to win,” Mourinho stated, emphasizing the importance of respecting opponents while striving for victory. He acknowledged the perceived debt to fans when performances don’t meet expectations but stressed the players’ responsibility to honour their profession and club.
Sporting CP enters the match with momentum, having won seven of their last eight top-flight games. Rui Borges celebrated his 50th match as Sporting’s boss with a 4-0 triumph over Estrela da Amadora. Borges expressed confidence in his team’s ability to face Benfica without intimidation, highlighting their growth and balance in both offensive and defensive play.
Borges remarked, “We are not going to run away from our idea, but there is a great team that will force us to be more balanced.” He emphasized the importance of maintaining confidence without overconfidence as they prepare for a challenging encounter against Benfica.
In this anticipated match, all three top scorers of the Primeira Liga will be on display. Vangelis Pavlidis leads Benfica with 10 goals in 12 appearances this season. His impressive stats include the highest expected goals (xG) total at 10.1 and a shot conversion rate of 25.6% among players with over 20 shots on target.
Sporting’s Luis Suarez has netted nine times this season, but Pedro Gonçalves, known as Pote, poses another significant threat with eight goals and five assists. Pote leads the league in chances created (32) and shares the highest goal involvements (13) alongside Pavlidis.
Match Prediction and Historical Context
The Opta supercomputer favours Benfica for this derby despite recent struggles against Sporting. Benfica has only one win in their last six league derbies against Sporting (D3 L2), failing to win any of their last three encounters (D1 L2). However, Sporting has historically struggled at Estadio da Luz, winning just two of their previous 19 visits (D7 L10).
Sporting’s away form is impressive, with victories in 10 of their last 11 Primeira Liga matches on the road (D1). Their sole exception was a draw against Friday’s opponents in May. The Opta win probability suggests a close contest: Benfica at 43.3%, Draw at 26.7%, and Sporting CP at 30%.