Retail sentiment on SPY and QQQ stayed bearish as earnings news and after-hours swings drove action.
- Markets digested weak ADP data that pushed Fed rate-cut odds close to 90%.
- Investors will be watching for cues from initial jobless claims data and Fed Governor Bowman’s speech later today.
- Retail sentiment on SPY and QQQ stayed bearish as earnings news and after-hours swings drove action.
U.S. stock futures are trading mixed early Thursday, after a broad rally in the previous session, triggered by weaker-than-expected jobs data. This adds weight to market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, despite mixed signals from the ISM Services PMI.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is now pricing in an 89% chance of an interest rate cut next Wednesday. As of 2:30 a.m., ET on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 futures and S&P 500 futures were flat, while the Dow futures and the Russell 2000 futures were up 0.1%
On Stocktwits, however, retail sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 Index, and that toward the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, remained ‘bearish’ early Thursday.
Investors are closely watching the potential outcome of changes to tariff policy, as the Supreme Court is currently reviewing the legality of Trump’s use of emergency powers to implement these duties.
Stocks On Trending Watchlist
Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) saw a stellar session on Wednesday, but in after-hours trading, the stock is lower by 10%. This came after its Hope 3 trial data delivered clear statistical wins, leading to a host of price target increases. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits trended in ‘extremely bullish’ territory with very high chatter on the platform.
Netflix (NFLX) is on the retail radar following a report that Warner Bros Discovery ($WBD) fielded a second round of bids for some assets, including a high-priced offer from Netflix.
Salesforce (CRM) gained in post-market trading after delivering an earnings beat. It also raised its full-year outlook, citing accelerating demand for its Agentforce and Data 360 platforms.
Snowflake (SNOW) sank in extended trading on Wednesday after reporting a loss in earnings.
Microsoft (MSFT) attempted to regain ground in after-hours trading after falling nearly 3%. This came after a report suggested lower demand for some AI tools, though the company denied having reduced aggregate AI sales quotas.
C3.ai (AI) is trending on Stocktwits after the company reported a beat on adjusted loss per share and subscription revenue, but missed gross margin expectations.
Astrazeneca Plc. (AZN) is gaining on retail chatter about a potential US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) fast track for baxdrostat, a hypertension treatment. The company announced on Wednesday that its new drug application for this drug was accepted for a priority review by the US FDA.
Key Catalysts To Watch Out For
On the economic front, two events will warrant attention following the weak ADP employment report yesterday:
- 8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims: Any unexpected spike in jobless claims could further cement the narrative that the labor market is loosening rapidly, boosting the bets for a Fed rate cut.
- 12:00 PM ET – FOMC Member Bowman Speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak today. Her comments will be closely watched for any shift in tone about the timing of potential rate cuts.
And on the earnings front, investors will be watching for a mix of tech and retail earnings after market close from DocuSign (DOCU), SentinelOne (S), Hewlett-Packard Enterprises (HPE), and Ulta Beauty ($ULTA), among others.
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