Weather experts believe the poor monsoon performance cannot be attributed solely to El Niño. They point to the absence of strong weather systems over both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which are crucial for sustaining monsoon activity across southern India.
IMD scientists noted that pressure systems remained weak throughout the season, limiting rainfall across Karnataka. Experts have also warned that if monsoon conditions do not improve during July and August—the peak monsoon months—the state could witness rising temperatures and worsening water scarcity. Recent temperatures in districts such as Kalaburagi have already touched 38°C despite the monsoon season.
Climate researchers further caution that global warming may be amplifying the effects of El Niño, making monsoon behaviour increasingly unpredictable and challenging to forecast.