According to JP Morgan’s estimates, the price of crude oil may come to $ 30 per barrel.
In the international market, the price of crude oil can be less than that of a one liter water bottle. We are not joking at all. This has been predicted by the world’s leading brokerage firm JP Morgan. The firm has estimated that crude oil prices could reach $30 per barrel by the end of fiscal year 2027 or March 2027. If it is seen in Indian Rupees and according to the exchange rate, 1 dollar is seen at 95 rupees, then the price of 1 barrel of crude oil will be 2850 rupees. This means that the price of one liter crude oil will fall to less than Rs 18.
At present the price of water is between Rs 18 to Rs 20. There may be further increase in this in the next year and a quarter. If this prediction proves true, then even if the Indian rupee falls to Rs 100 against the dollar, the Indian government will still have the scope to reduce the prices of petrol and diesel. At present, the prices of crude oil i.e. Brent crude oil of Gulf countries are seen more than $62 but less than $63 per barrel. According to JP’s estimate, crude oil prices may fall by more than 50 percent in the next 16 months. Let us also tell you what kind of estimates have been made by the American giant firm.
Crude oil prices may reach $30
JP Morgan has made tremendous predictions regarding the prices of crude oil. This can be a very good news for those countries of the world, which are dependent only on imports for crude oil. JP Morgan has estimated that the price of Brent crude may fall to $ 30 per barrel by the end of FY 27 i.e. by March 2027. This means that the prices of Brent crude oil are likely to decrease by more than 50 percent from the current level. Talking about the main reasons for this possible decline, according to JP, there will be increasing global supply, which may be seen more than the demand. The investment bank’s latest projections show that despite continued growth in oil consumption, there will be an increase in supply in the next three years. Especially this supply will increase from non-OPEC plus countries, which will greatly affect the energy market and put pressure on prices.
How much is the demand and what will be the increase?
Global oil demand is expected to increase by 0.9 mbd in 2025, bringing total consumption to 105.5 mbd. It is estimated that the growth rate will remain stable in 2026 and will increase to 1.2 MBD in 2027. Yet this steady growth is unlikely to keep pace with supply, which JPMorgan estimates will grow at about three times the rate of demand in both 2025 and 2026. However, there will be a reduction in prices due to supply in 2027. Still, this will be much more than the market’s natural capacity.
These countries are going to increase production
A major reason for this imbalance will be the increase in non-OPEC+ production. The bank noted that half of the projected supply gains by 2027 will come from outside the alliance, driven by strong offshore growth and continued momentum in global shale. Offshore, once considered a cyclical and cost wavy sector, has now transformed into a reliable, low-cost growth engine. It is set to add 0.5 MBD in 2025, 0.9 MBD in 2026 and 0.4 MBD in 2027. With almost all FPSOs already approved by 2029, JP Morgan highlights that the potential for new offshore barrels is exceptionally strong and there is every possibility of completion in the future.
Increase in stock due to increase in supply
Shale oil remains the most flexible lever of global supply. While US shale growth is slowing, productivity and capital efficiency continue to support production. Unlike the US, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta has emerged as a scalable, low-cost sector with improvements in export infrastructure. In 2025, global shale supply grew by 0.8 mbd, and assuming oil prices remain in the mid-$50s, shale production is projected to increase by 0.4 mbd in 2026 and 0.5 mbd in 2027.
Due to this surge in supply there has been a huge increase in the stock. Globally, observable inventories have increased by 1.5 MBD so far this year, of which about 1 MBD is held in oil-on-water and sugar stocks. JPMorgan sees all this growth as an additional layer of supply that will continue until 2026. Without intervention, the surplus could increase to 2.8 MBD in 2026 and 2.7 MBD in 2027.
In this way the price can come to 30 dollars
Such an imbalance means Brent could fall below $60 in 2026 and as low as $50 by the final quarter, ending the year at $40. By 2027, average prices could fall to $42, reaching $30 by the end of the year. However, JP Morgan says that supply cut can be resorted to to rebalance the prices. It is difficult for prices to reach $30. In 2026, the price of Brent crude oil may be at $ 58 per barrel. Which is currently hovering around $60; Maintains its forecast of $58. Currently, Brent is trading slightly above $60 per barrel.
So Brent crude will be cheaper than water
If JP Morgan’s prediction comes true then the price of one liter of crude oil could be less than that of one liter bottle of water. Let us try to explain this with an example. As per JP’s estimates, crude oil prices will be $30 per barrel by financial year 2027. If we try to convert it into Indian Rupees then at present the Rupee is seen at the level of 89 against the Dollar. Whereas the exchange rate will also change by March 2027. According to an estimate, by March 2027 the rupee may be seen at the level of 95 against the dollar. This means that the price of one barrel will be Rs 2,850 per barrel. There are 159 liters in a barrel. This means that the price of one liter crude oil will be Rs 17.90. At present, the price of one liter water bottle is 18 to 20 rupees in the country’s capital Delhi. This means that the prices of crude oil can be lower than that of water.
Petrol and diesel will be cheaper in India
The special thing is that if the price of crude oil reaches $30 per barrel, then India will benefit greatly. Also common people can get cheaper petrol and diesel. At present crude oil is available at $62 per barrel. But due to fall in rupee, that oil is also becoming expensive for India. At present, to buy Brent crude oil, one has to spend more than Rs 5,600 on one barrel. By the year 2027, the rupee will fall to the level of 100 against the dollar, when India will have to spend only Rs 3000 on one barrel. Which may be more than Rs 2600 less than the current level. In such a situation, according to the Government of India and petroleum companies, it will help in reducing the prices of petrol and diesel.
Current crude oil prices
However, a slight increase in the prices of crude oil is being seen in the international market on Wednesday. According to the data, crude oil of Gulf countries is seen increasing by 0.18 percent at $ 62.59 per barrel. Whereas American crude oil prices are trading at $ 58 per barrel with a slight increase of 0.19 percent. The special thing is that in the last few weeks there has been a huge decline in the prices of crude oil.