Nifty 50 Today: The Indian equity market is navigating a crossroad this week – while the Nifty is hovering just over 100 points from its record high, the Indian rupee has plunged to its weakest level ever, unsettling foreign investors and clouding the near-term outlook.
The stark contrast between a roaring equity index and a record-low currency has placed the market at a critical inflection point.
On Friday, the rupee tumbled 0.9% in a single session-its steepest fall since May-to hit a historic low of 89.49 against the U.S. dollar. The slump was driven by heavy portfolio outflows, uncertainty surrounding a potential US-India trade agreement, and what traders interpreted as a temporary retreat by the Reserve Bank of India from defending key levels.
On Monday, however, the currency staged a partial rebound, supported by a likely RBI intervention. The rupee strengthened 0.3% to 89.1625 against the dollar as of 10:20 a.m. IST, though near-term volatility expectations climbed to multi-month highs, reflecting lingering nervousness.
FIIs Turn Sellers as Currency Volatility Surges
The timing of the rupee’s fall could not be more delicate. Foreign institutional investors sold ₹1,700 crore worth of Indian equities on Friday alone-underscoring how a weakening rupee erodes dollar-adjusted returns and dampens FII appetite. A softer currency typically makes equities less attractive for overseas investors, raising the stakes for domestic markets already flirting with record valuations.
Yet despite the currency turmoil, domestic equity benchmarks displayed surprising resilience on Monday.
The Sensex rose 241.55 points (0.3%) to hit an intraday high of 85,473.47, while the Nifty climbed 74.65 points (0.3%) to touch 26,142.8-now just 134 points away from its lifetime high of 26,277.35, registered in September last year.
Can Markets Hit a Record High in November?
According to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, the setup may finally favour a breakout.
He noted, “Previous attempts by the Nifty and Sensex to break the 2024 September high didn’t succeed since the rally lost steam on FII selling, and the expected US-India trade deal didn’t materialise.” He added that a shift in fundamentals is now underway.
“FY27 is likely to witness above 15% earnings growth. This is a strong fundamental support,” Vijayakumar said, adding that weakness in the global AI trade could push FIIs to turn buyers in India. He advised investors to stay focused on large-caps and high-quality midcaps, while remaining cautious on small-caps, which he believes are still overvalued.
Charmi Shah, Business Head, Wealth1 – PMS & AIF Investments, echoed a cautiously optimistic stance. She noted that while the broader backdrop remains supportive, the Nifty has faced multiple rejections near its peak. With Q2 GDP data, uncertainty around the India-US trade deal, and shifting expectations of a December Fed rate cut-with odds jumping to 70% from 44% a week earlier-the market may witness sharp swings.
“I think the balance of probabilities favours Nifty attempting a new high this month,” Shah said, but warned investors to brace for range-bound action and quick reversals rather than a smooth, one-directional rally.
Technical View: Bulls Still in Control but Resistance Is Near
Osho Krishan, Chief Manager – Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One, highlighted that the Nifty50 remains firmly in an uptrend.
He pointed out that the index is forming a series of higher highs, supported by a “V-shaped recovery” on the daily charts, which signals strong domestic undercurrents. The index remains comfortably above its short-term EMAs, which strengthens the case for a retest of lifetime highs.
However, Krishan cautioned that the region between 26,100-26,250 poses stiff resistance, given repeated rejections in this zone. He added that 26,000-25,900 should act as an immediate support band, followed by deeper support at 25,750-25,700. A decisive breakout above 26,250-26,280 could open the gates for a fresh rally toward 26,400-26,500.
Charmi Shah also emphasised similar levels, stating: Nifty 50 is already trading close to its record zone near 26,277, and the set-up suggests that a fresh all-time high in November is possible but not guaranteed. I see the band 26,000-25,850 as strong support and 26,250-26,300 as the immediate resistance.