The brokerage firm expects China’s EV market slowdown to arrive sooner than anticipated, leading the bank to trim Li Auto’s FY25 and FY26 volume and profit forecasts by 10% and 20%.
JPMorgan analyst Nick Lai has downgraded Li Auto to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ and cut its price target to $28 from $33, cautioning that China’s passenger vehicle market could lose steam or even shrink in 2026 once government subsidies end next year.
He said the slowdown might hit earlier than most expect after strong July sales, prompting the bank to cut its FY25 and FY26 volume and profit forecasts by 10% and 20%, respectively, to reflect tougher competition.
The downgrade comes as Li Auto is pushing ahead with ambitious delivery targets for its new Li i8 electric SUV despite a rocky debut in China.
The company plans to deliver more than 8,000 units by the end of September and hit 10,000 before the Oct. 1–8 National Day holiday, with deliveries starting August 20.
Priced from 321,800 yuan ($44,770), the six-seat i8 launched July 29 but faced a muted reception compared to rivals like Nio’s Onvo L90. A relaunch on Aug. 5 brought fewer trims and a lower price, alongside a 97.8 kWh battery, 5C fast charging, and up to 720 km CLTC range.
The rollout has been marred by waves of negative social media posts that Li Auto alleges are part of an organized smear campaign, echoing backlash from its earlier Li Mega MPV launch.
A crash test video controversy added to the turbulence before the company and testing institute issued a joint apology.
July deliveries fell 39.7% year-on-year to 30,731 units, with L-series extended-range EV sales down sharply, though Li Mega deliveries surged 330%.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Li Auto was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.
Li Auto’s U.S.-listed stock has risen nearly 4% so far in 2025.
($1=7.17 yuan)
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