The short-term trend remains weak as key moving averages slope downward, according to an analyst.
Indian equity markets ended higher on Wednesday with the Nifty index reclaiming the 24,600 level, a touch above the 10-day moving average (DMA) of 24,593.
Will the markets sustain the upmove in Thursday’s expiry session? SEBI-registered analysts shared the trade setup for August 14 on Stocktwits.
What Next For Markets?
Analyst Dipak Takodara highlighted that despite the bounce, the short-term trend is still weak because the 10-DMA (24,593) and 20-DMA (24,781) are both falling, and both are below the flat 50-DMA (25,022). According to him, Nifty remains range-bound between nearby support at 24,467–24,377 and resistance at 24,600–24,650 (10-DMA).
Key Levels to Watch:
• Support: 24,467–24,377; 24,200–24,150
• Resistance: 24,600–24,650 (10-DMA); 24,800–24,850 (20-DMA); 25,000–25,050 (50-DMA).
Volumes indicate subdued participation, and the momentum is neutral to bearish, Takodara noted.
If Nifty holds above 24,600 and closes above 24,650, it can push toward 24,750–24,850. If it slips back under 24,600, expect another move towards 24,467–24,377. Bias remains range-bound with a bearish tilt, he concluded.
Analyzing Derivatives Data
Analyst Pradeep Carpenter observed that maximum pain was seen at 24,600, which means that option writers expect expiry to happen near this level, as it causes the least loss to them. Maximum call open interest was seen at 24,600 & 24,700, which is a big resistance zone, while maximum put open interest stood at 24,500 & 24,600, a strong support area.
Carpenter said that if the index breaks 24,50, fresh selling could come in. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) at 0.82 indicates a mildly bearish to neutral sentiment. For the Nifty, he sees it boxed between 24,500 and 24,700 for now. A breakout above 24,700 can push towards 24,900, but if 24,500 fails, it may slide to 24,340.
For the Bank Nifty, he sees it stuck between 55,000 and 55,600. A breakout above 55,600 can target 55,850, but a breakdown below 55,000 can accelerate selling to 54,500.
Trading Plan: Carpenter advised buying Nifty above 24,700 for 24,900, and selling below 24,500 for 24,340. For Bank Nifty, one can buy above 55,600 for 55,850, and sell below 55,000 for 54,500.
Sentiment Turning Positive?
On the other hand, Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services noted that the candle formation on Wednesday showed promise that the market can lead onwards to 24,800 and higher positionally. Heading into the weekly expiry session on Thursday, he sees less probability of the index being rejected at this level. However, if the Nifty index trends lower, then he sees support at 24,500-24,450 on the downside.
For intraday trade, Sharma identified immediate support at 24,600, followed by 24,550-24,500-24,450. Immediate resistance is seen at 24,640, which, if breached, can take the index to 24,680-24,720-24,800 and higher. Bias remains positive for Thursday’s trade.
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