Despite a year-long correction, analyst believes that the real estate upcycle is far from over.
The Nifty Realty Index has declined by around 20–25% over the last year, following nearly 600% returns from the Covid-19 lows of April 2020. Despite the recent correction, most listed players remain optimistic about FY26, as highlighted in their Q1 management calls.
SEBI-registered analyst Sumesh Guleria believes that the Nifty Realty Index still has headroom to retest its all-time highs of 1,800–1,900 seen back in January 2008.
So What Is Driving This Optimism?
Guleria noted that most premium brand developers have dismissed concerns of an impending downturn. Godrej Properties said that the “euphoric” post-COVID demand phase has passed, and hence, any sharp price or volume spikes are unlikely. Instead a sustainable growth is expected.
Additionally, recent project launches have received a strong response across the nation, which shows healthy underlying demand. In June, real estate major DLF had sold all 1,164 luxury apartments for about Rs 11,000 crore within a week of the launch of its new housing project in Gurugram.
Meanwhile, Godrej Properties has shared plans of six new projects/phases launched across four cities with ₹8,500 crore sales potential.
Many real estate developers noted that price corrections and stability are making real estate more appealing to buyers. From an industry perspective, reports from India Ratings and Grant Thornton support this view – while growth might be moderated due to the high base effect in the coming years, a downturn is not likely.
Next Triggers To Watch
Investors will be monitoring the quarterly results and management commentary. Guleria noted that while strong earnings performance can reignite the rally, a couple of weak quarters or negative sentiment from listed players could trigger further correction.
He concluded that the real estate upcycle is not over but transitioning into a more mature phase.
The Nifty Realty Index has declined by 14% year-to-date (YTD)
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