An expert at S&P Global told ANI that the ongoing talks between America and Iran may extend beyond the 60-day deadline, as many geopolitical issues are not yet resolved. Although the movement of ships in the Strait of Hormuz has improved, uncertainty remains.
The ongoing talks between America and Iran may take more time to complete than the current deadline of 60 days. A top expert at S&P Global Energy told ANI on Tuesday that many geopolitical issues are still unresolved, even as there are signs of improvement in ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz. When asked whether the 60-day peace talks window could be extended, Benjamin Tang, director and global head of liquid bulk, commodities at sea at S&P Global Energy, told ANI, “Yes, there is a possibility that these discussions may take more than 60 days to reach a conclusion.”
Many geopolitical issues still remain
Tang said that there is a clause in the current agreement that if necessary, the talks can be extended beyond the initial deadline. He said, “There is a provision in the bilateral agreements of both the countries to extend the talks by 60 days.” S&P Global executive said that many important issues are still not resolved and these could affect the pace of talks. “There are still a lot of things to be decided,” Tang said.
Referring to the main challenges facing the talks, he said, “I think the biggest issue is what will happen to the nuclear situation. Apart from this, there are also issues like Lebanon, different attacks and the responses to them.” Tang said that these issues are very important for the future of negotiations. He said, “These are such major issues that it is not yet clear whether 60 days will be enough to resolve them completely.”
Signs of improvement in the Strait of Hormuz
Despite these uncertainties, Tang said there were some encouraging signs in the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital route for global energy trade. He said, “We have seen that the number of ships passing through here has increased in the last week. Now on an average around 30 ships are passing through here every day, whereas in the last few months this figure was only 12.” However, he also cautioned that traffic levels are still well below normal. “This number is a far cry from the figure of 135 ships seen before the war,” Tang said. He said many operational and commercial issues still remain to be resolved, such as shipping approvals, insurance costs and future arrangements for transit through this route. “So the signs are positive, but there are still uncertainties and many details remain to be worked out,” he said.
Iranian crude oil exports increased
On Iran’s crude oil exports, Tang said that the activity of tankers has increased in recent times. “Last week, after the US blockade was lifted, we saw a lot of Iranian tankers start leaving,” he said. According to Tang, at least 12 Iranian tankers have departed in recent days, bringing exports closer to pre-war levels. He said, “Our estimate is that for the month of June it is about 1.5 million barrels per day. This figure is the same as the level before the war.”
India showed wisdom
He also said that many of the cargoes currently reaching the market were already loaded before the blockage and questions remain over how quickly Iran’s production will be able to fully ramp up.
Tang also praised India’s response to the crisis. He said India has shown its potential by rapidly acquiring alternative sources of crude oil and diversifying its sourcing. Crude oil grades from Russia, Brazil, West Africa and the US have become an important part of India’s import portfolio, while refiners continue to strike a balance between supply security and cost, he said. Tang said that despite recent improvements in shipping movements and crude oil flows, the progress of US-Iran talks will remain a key factor for the energy market as it impacts regional stability, global oil flows and energy security.