Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, US foreign policy appears to have tilted towards Pakistan, leaving India facing tougher trade terms and stricter visa policies. The trend is visible not only in diplomatic engagements but also in student visa approvals, trade tariffs, and aid disbursal patterns.
Rapid Fall in Indian Student Visas, Increase for Pakistan
Based on the official US State Department statistics, the F1 student visas issued to Indian citizens dropped sharply from October 2023 to September 2024. The visas issued were just 86,067, marking a 34 per cent drop compared to the previous year. The decline continued into 2025. In the January–May period this year, only 11,484 visas were approved for Indian students, down 29 per cent from the same period in 2024.
In contrast, 28 per cent more student visas were issued in Pakistan over the same period, while Chinese student visas fell by only 8 per cent. Nepali students experienced a 13 per cent decline in approvals. Introduction of compulsory checks on social media accounts for all student and exchange visa applicants in July has increased the rigor, especially for Indian applicants.
Tariff Gap Adds to Unease
Trade tensions have escalated as the Trump administration imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Indian exports, up from the earlier 25 per cent. In comparison, Pakistan faces only a 19 per cent tariff. This evidently hints friendlier US stance towards Islamabad, boosting Pakistan’s strategic position and influence in both South Asia and the Middle East.
Pakistan Gets More Aid Than Hoped
Pakistan has also been a consistent beneficiary of higher-than-promised American aid. US government data shows Islamabad received 89 per cent more funds than allocated in 2020, 64 per cent more in 2023, and 44 per cent more in 2024. As India is subjected to higher tariffs and tougher visa regulations, US aid to Pakistan has been steady or above commitment.
US-Pakistan Oil Cooperation
In the midst of international trade tariff controversies, President Trump has also made an agreement with Pakistan to develop its untapped oil reserves, including fields such as Chakar 1, Faakir 1, Spinwam 1, Razgir 1, Soghri North 1, and Kot Nawab 1. These new finds increased Pakistan’s oil reserves by 23 per cent in 2024. The US firms are likely to gain a lot from these ventures, whereas Pakistan will decrease its reliance on energy imports from its neighbours.
ALSO READ: ‘Hand-In-Glove With Terrorists’: India Slams Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir’s Nuclear Threat, Calls It ‘Regrettable’
Indirect Benefits Associated With Defence And Nuclear Sector
US Department of Justice reports that Pakistan has also benefited indirectly from the purchase of technology. In March this year, a Pakistani-Canadian citizen was charged with smuggling billions of dollars’ worth of US commodities and technology to Pakistani organisations involved in nuclear and missile programs. In another 2020 case, five men were charged with illicitly exporting US-origin items to groups connected to Pakistan’s weapons development.
ALSO READ: From Kargil To Operation Sindoor: How Pakistan’s Nuclear Threat Remains A Long-Standing Rhetoric Amid Indo-Pak Tensions
The Indo-US bilateral relationship has been strained even further after President Trump recently vowed to impose even stiffer tariffs on India for buying Russian oil. When asked about US imports of Russian energy, Trump brushed the issue away, stating, “I don’t know anything about it. I have to check it out.” With trade tension, a reduction of student visas, and perceived American generosity towards Pakistan, India-US ties are experiencing one of their roughest patches in recent years.